Abuja, Nigeria. October 14th, 2013 - The Third Quarter (Q3) results for the Petrol Pump Price Monitoring Polls conducted by NOIPolls Limited reveals there was a drastic 30 point decline in the proportion of Nigerians that purchase petrol above the official pump price of N97 (52% in Q2 and 22% in Q3). The poll further indicates that the majority of Nigerians in Q3 (40%) purchase petrol for both their cars and generators versus Q2 where the majority (44%) purchased for their generators . These form part of the findings of the polls for Quarter 3, 2013.
In January 2012, the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatroy Agency (PPPRA) along with government announced an increase in the price of petrol from N65 to N141 as a result of the removal of subsidy for the reason that over a trillion naira was spent in 2011 on subsidy. After days of protest by Nigerians led by organised labour and civil societies who were unhappy about the perceived hardship this action would cause Nigerians and the lack of notice by the government to carry out such plans, the government as a stop-gap measure partially removed subsidy, thereby bringing the official pump price of petrol to N97.
Subsidy has been defined as money given by the state or public body to keep down cost of commodities. Some people see it as a form of protectionism or trade barrier because domestic goods are made affordable artificially. Within the Nigerian petroleum pricing context, subsidy would then mean selling petrol below the cost of production or importation.
In the course of and following the 2012 subsidy protest and partial removal of subsidy by government, many debates arose with erroneous and innaccurate information passed across as the truth, indicating a need for a dependable measure of public opinion on issues surrounding public policies. This led NOI Polls in January 2013 to initiate the Petrol Pump Price Monitoring Poll Project. This result release is the third quarterly release in the series. (see Q1 and Q2 results here)
The purpose of the poll is to monitor and analyse the current price and uses of petrol in Nigeria, as well as to measure the perception of Nigerians towards the petrol price differences at various points of sale.
Over 4,500 respondents have been interviewed across nine months (January-September) and the respondents are asked the same ten questions for each monthly poll, but only five of these will be reveiwed in this report. For full details of the findings please e-mail: email@example.com.
In order to determine the main petrol distributors that Nigerians patronize and analyze the purchase trends, respondents to the poll were asked: Where do you mainly buy petrol from? The responses indicate that in the 3rd quarter of 2013, 70% of Nigerians bought petrol from major marketer filling stations. This is followed by 26% of Nigerians who bought from independent marketer filling stations and 5% who bought from hawkers.
Analysis of the results by geo-political zones shows that the South-West has the highest percentage of people(80%) purchasing petrol from major marketer filling stations. The South-East zone has the highest percentage purchasing from independent marketer filling stations with 45%, while the North-East zone has the highest percentage of people purchasing from the hawkers with 15%. Figure 1 illustrates these findings.
Figure 1: Main point of petrol purchase (Q3, 2013)
When Q3 results are compared with Q2, current results show a sharp 15% increase in the proportion of people that mainly buy from major marketer filling stations when compared to Q2 results and a corresponding 12%decrease in the proportion that buy from Independents. Averages across the 9 month period indicate the following for 2013: 62% of Nigerians purchase petrol from major marketer filling stations, 31% purchase from independents while an average of 7% purchase from hawkers.
Figure 2: Main point of petrol purchase (Q1, Q2 &Q3 2013)
In order to estimate the average cost of petrol in Nigeria as well as measure the percentage of Nigerians who buy above the official pump price, the respondents to the poll were asked: How much do you normally buy petrol? Results show that the 78% of Nigerians purchased petrol at the official price of N97 in Q3. This shows a drastic improvement in the availability of petrol compared to Q1 and Q2.
Further analysis by geo-political zones shows that the South-West, North-Central and South-South zones have the highest amount of respondents who bought petrol at N97 with 84% and 82% for both of the other zones respectively.
Figure 3: Price per litre of petrol (Q3, 2013)
Furthermore, the price paid per litre of petrol was cross-tabulated by point of purchase; this is presented as Figure 4 below. Results show that the majority of major marketer filling stations (87%) sell at the official price ofN97. Meanwhile, the majority of Independent marketer filling stations (26%) also sell at the official pump price and the majority of petrol hawkers (53%) sell above N130.
Figure 4: Price per litre of petrol by point of purchase (Q3, 2013)
When Q3 results are compared with Q1 and Q2; there was a drastic 30 point increase in the proportion of respondents that purchase petrol at the official pump price and corresponding decline in the proportion that purchase above the official pump prices.
Figure 5: Price per litre of petrol (Q1, Q2 &Q3 2013)
In order to acertain the main uses of petrol in Nigeria, the respondents to the poll were asked: What do you normally use petrol for? Similar to the Q2 survey, the result for Q3 reveals that on an average, the majority (40%) use petrol for both their car and generator. This is followed by the use of petrol for cars with 21% and Generator with 20%.
Figure 6: Uses of Petrol (quarter 1, 2013)
When comparing quarterly results, Q3 was the peak when the majority bought petrol for both their cars and generators while Q2 was the peak of when the majority bought for their generators only.
Averages across the nine month period indicate the following averages in 2013: 29% of Nigerians use petrol both for their cars and generators, 25% use petrol for only their cars while 33% (the majority) use petrol for their generators only.
Figure 7: Use of petrol (Q1, Q2 & Q3 2013)
In order to measure the perception of Nigerians towards the causes of price differences of petrol at the points of sale, the respondents to the poll were asked: What do you think is responsible for the difference in the pump price of petrol across filling stations?
The results show that majority (48%) of the respondents blamed the disparity in petrol price on the lack of monitoring of the petrol stations by governments. Furthermore, 27% of the respondents were of the opinion that the petrol stations are hoarding petrol and exploiting the public, while 25% felt that it is because the cost of importing petrol is not the same for all marketers.
Analysis by geo-political zones shows that the South-West and South-East zones (51% and 50% respectively) have the highest proportion of respondents who blamed the government for not monitoring the filling stations, while the North-Central zone (39%) accounts for the highest proportion of respondents that feel the petrol stations are exploiting people. The North-East has the highest proportion of respondents (39%) that blame the price disparity on the varying cost of importation of petrol.
Figure 8: Responsibility for price disparity (Q3, 2013)
A comparison of the three quarters shows that Q2 had the peak of when the majority of respondents thought it was the government’s responsibility. There was a sharp 12 point drop in Q3 and an increase in the proportion of respondents with other views such as “The cost of importing petrol is not the same for all marketers” and “The filling stations are exploiting the public by hoarding fuel”.
Averages across the 9 month period indicate the following for 2013: About 56% of Nigerians blame price differences at points of purchase on lack of government monitoring, 21% of Nigerians blame hoarding by filling stations and 20% of Nigerians blame the varying prices of importation.
Figure 9: Responsibility for price disparity (Q1, Q2 & Q3 2013)
The findings of this poll indicate that in Q3, the Nigerian Government has made clear and strategic interventions in the supply of petrol thereby making it more readily available for Nigerians. This is evident in the drastic 30 point drop in the percentage of people that buy above the official pump price. Q3 is the only quarter of the year 2013 where the majority of Nigerians have claimed to buy at the official pump price; the majority in Q1 and Q2 purchased at prices above the official pump price. The poll result also shows that Nigerians mainly use petrol for their cars and generators Furthermore it reveals that the majority of Nigerians question the effectiveness of bodies set aside to monitor and regulate petrol prices.
These are findings on a Poll conducted between July and September 2013 by NOIPolls Limited. A sample of 1,510 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerian adults, aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed by telephone using randomly generated numbers. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage and measurement error, however with a sample of this size there is 95 percent confidence that the results obtained are statistically accurate (giving a range of plus or minus 3percent). NOIPolls Limited is the No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. We work in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com
This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.
NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.