NOIPolls Portfolio of Indices - March 2014

Abuja, Nigeria. April 8th, 2014 – The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited has revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index stands at 41% in March 2014 indicating a 1-point drop fromFebruary. Furthermore, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for March shows a significant 12-pointsdeclinefrom February 2014 results. These are the key highlights from the March Portfolio of Indices Press Release.

In February 2014, NOIPolls officially unveiled its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations of the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. 

This report presents the March 2014 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).

Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minority conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria.

The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI)

The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index for March 2014 stands at 41.3%; which signifies a slight downward shift in the well-being of Nigerians from the previous month. Additionally, analysis of the individual indicators that make up the Well-being Index reveal that Nigerians are more satisfied with certain aspects of their lives than others. For instance, Nigerians are highly satisfied in terms of Religion (86.5%), Social interaction (72.8%) and Physical health (71.6%). Similarly, Nigerians are mostly neutral with respect to their Achievement in life (51.4%), Personal security (49.1%), and Standard of living (47.1%) while Nigerians are obviously not satisfied with their Personal economic situation (34.1%).  

 

When current findings are compared with February 2014 results, it reveals there was a drop across of the indicators that make up the Personal Well-being Index while the overall index dropped by 1 point. The largest increase was observed in Health (1.8 points) while the largest declines were observed in personal security (6.6 points) and economic situation (2.3 points). In Nigeria, both factors are often interconnected such that the current security challenge of an individual often affects that person’s economic situation. For instance, insecurity and uncertainty experienced in some regions within Nigeria have had a negative impact on the economic activities in those areas. 

 

Quarterly trend analysis shows that the personal well-being index of Nigerians experienced a total decline of 2.72-points over the first quarter of 2014

 

The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for March 2014 stands at 68.7.  This result indicates that consumers remain somewhat positive about their personal state and stability of the economy. In general, this should lead to the purchase of more goods and services and eventually stimulate economic growth.

 

The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index comprises of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI).  In March, the Present Situation Index of 58.57 shows that Nigerians feel slightly good about their present personal and economic situation. Similarly, the Expectation Index score of 76.2 reveals that consumers are highly optimistic about the future.

Trend analysis shows that the overall CCI dropped by 12-points; the Present Situation Index increased by 2-points while the Expectation Index experienced a highly significant 20-points declineThis drop shows that Nigerians have significantly lowered their expectations for the future by March compared to February 2014. This can be linked to 2013 PWBI results conducted by NOIPolls that suggests Nigerians start the year being highly optimistic and this gradually drops over the course of the year as the reality of their present situation encroaches on their future expectations. This is significant in the light of March CCI results where the Expectation Index experienced a sharp decline and the Present Situation Index experienced a slight increase.

 

Quarterly trend analysis shows that the personal well-being index of Nigerians experienced a total decline of 15.3-points over the first quarter of 2014.

 

Conclusion

The Personal Well-Being of Nigerians with the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index stands at 41% in March 2014 indicating a slight 1-point drop from February (42%). Furthermore, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for March experienced a significant 12-points declinefrom February (80%). Analysis of the individual indicators that make up the PWBI shows that the largest declines were observed in Personal security (6.6 points)and Economic situation (2.3 points). Additionally, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for Marchdeclined by 12-points to 68%. Analysis of the 2 key indicators that constitute the CCI shows that the Present Situation Index increased by 2-points while the expectation Index experienced a significant 20-points decline.This drop shows that Nigerians are less optimistic about their future expectations in March compared toFebruary 2014. This can also be linked to 2013 PWBI results that suggest Nigerians start the year being highly optimistic and this gradually drops over the course of the year as the reality of their present situation encroaches on their future expectations. 

Survey Methods

The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in the month of March 2014. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%.

In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 4,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

 

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