April 2015 Records Lowest Approval Ratings for the President’s From January 2015

Abuja, Nigeria. May 7th, 2015– Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls for the month of April 2015 have revealed that 49 percent of the respondents surveyed approved of the President’s performance within the past one month. It is worthy to note that this rating is the lowest rating in 2015; the same as April 2014 and also represents a further 3-points decline; thus revealing a continuous drop in his performance rating since February 2015. The general decline in the approval rating of the President is seen across 5 geo-political zones, with the North-West zone accounting for the greatest decline (16-points). This substantial decline in the President’s approval rating specifically in the North-West zone could be linked with the pattern in which electorates from that region voted in the just concluded Presidential election in which the President was defeated.

More findings revealed that Nigerians perceive the performance of the President in Health, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & diplomacy as average (3) in the month of April 2015. On the contrary, his performance in Job Creation, Power, Economy and Security was given a rating of 1 representing a poor performance.

Furthermore, about 6 in 10 Nigerians (58 percent) of adult Nigerians reported that power supply to their households ‘worsened’ within the last one month. Conversely, only 20 percent of the respondents experienced improvement in power supply to their household, representing the worst ever power rating since NOIPolls commenced it power rating in January 2013. Finally, the worsened state of power supply across the nation may have impacted negative perceptions on the performance of the President, hence the decline in his  approval rating in April 2015. These are some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Poll conducted in the week of April 27th 2015.

These results represent the fourth in the 2015 monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regardingthe approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and thestate of power supply in the country.

Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to assess the opinion of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month?  Responses to this question revealed that a total of 49 percent of the respondents surveyed approved of the President’s performance, 30 percent disapproved of his performance, while 21 percent of the respondents remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved. This percentage represents the highest shift to neutrality by Nigerians in 2015.

An analysis of the President’s performance by geo-political zone revealed that the South-East zone (79 percent: 27 percent +52 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance. The North-West zone (48 percent: 32 percent +16 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who disapproved of the President’s job performance, while the North-East zone accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who were neutral with 33 percent.

A three-month trend analysis (February to April 2015) of the President’s job approval rating by geo-political zone features a general decline in the approval rating of the President across 5 geo-political zones thus a general decline in his approval rating in April 2015. In addition, the North-West zone recorded the highest decline (16-points), whereas the North-East zone accounted for the highest increase (10-points) when compared to March 2015 approval rating. This substantial decline in the President’s approval rating specifically in the North-West zone could be linked with the pattern in which electorates from that region voted in the just concluded Presidential election in which the President was defeated. This decline may also have been as a result of the obvious worsened state of power supply experienced all over the nation over the past one month as illustrated in the last chart of this report.

Further monthly trend analysis of the President’s approval rating shows a slight 3-points decline when compared to the March 2015. The President rating has shown a constant decrease since February 2015 and it is also observed that the rating from this current poll is the same as April 2014.

To gauge the performance of the President on pertinent elements of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of the President Jonathan in the following areas?  (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture & Food Security (7) Transportation (8) Foreign policy & Diplomacy and (9) Security. The outcome indicates that Nigerians perceive the performance of the President in Health, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & diplomacy as average (3) in the month of April 2015. On the contrary, his performance in Job Creation, Power, Economy and Security was given a rating of 1 which represents a poor performance.

Trend assessment shows that the President’s performance rating on Education, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy has maintained an average ranking (3) since January 2015 while other aspects of his transformation agenda has been fluctuating (both below and above average). However, the President’s performance rating on Job creation, Power and Security has remained very poor (1) since January 2014.

Finally, to find out the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month, respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month?  The result reveals that 24 percent of the respondents affirmed that power supply has “remained bad’ while 34 percent claimed ‘it’s very bad and has gone worse’. Conversely, 24 percent of the respondents affirmed that power supply has “remained bad’ while 34 percent claimed ‘it’s very bad and has gone worse’. In addition, 3 percent of adult Nigerians reported that power supply to their households ‘has improved very much’, while 17 percent admitted that ‘it has improved a little’ within the past one month.22 percent said there’s no difference at all’ suggesting their power supply neither improved nor worsened over the past one month.

Analysis by geo-political zone indicates that the South-East zone accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who experienced an improved power supply with 27 percent, while the South-West zone accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians who claimed that power supply remained bad with the last one month.

Monthly trend evaluation reveals a further decline of 5-points in the proportion of Nigerians who experienced an improvement in power supply to their households in April 2015. This result which represents the lowest power rating over 28 months since NOIPolls commenced its power rating also represents a significant 9-points decline when compared to April 2014.                             

In conclusion, about 5 in 10 Nigerians surveyed approved of the President’s performance, 30 percent disapproved of his performance, while 21 percent of the respondents remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved of his performance. Furthermore, Nigerians perceive the performance of the President in Health, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & diplomacy as average (3) in the month of April 2015. On the contrary, his performance in Job Creation, Power, Economy and Security was given a rating of 1 representing a poor performance.

Finally, result has revealed that 3 percent of adult Nigerians reported that power supply to their households ‘has improved very much’, while 17 percent admitted that ‘it has improved a little’ within the past one month. Conversely, 24 percent of the respondents affirmed that power supply has “remained bad’ while 34 percent claimed ‘it’s very bad and has gone worse’, whereas 22 percent said there’s no difference at all’; suggesting that power supply worsened over the past one month.

Survey Methods

The opinion poll was conducted in the week of April 27th 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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