Power Improvement in Nigeria Still Elusive As Rating Of Power Stands At Average Of 36 Percent Over A 30-Month Period

Abuja, Nigeria. 14th July 2015Power poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the second quarter of 2015 have revealed that Nigerians have rarely seen improvement in power supply even in the face of power reformation programmes; as only an average of 36.4 percent of Nigerian households attested to seeing improvement in power supply over a 30 month period. This finding is in no doubt influenced by the challenges faced from the generation, transmission and distribution end of the power sector.

More findings revealed that the power sector has been characterized   by an erratic supply of power as there has been no clear consistency in the state of power over this period, with months of slight improvements as well as most often, months with no visible improvement. For instance there has been a consistent decline in the proportion of Nigerians who saw improvement from January 2015 (32percent) to May 2015 (17 percent); however an upward movement was recorded in June 2015, as 44 percent of Nigerians attested to seeing improvement in power supply; thus representing a significant increase of 27-points from May to June 2015. Moreover, nationwide quarterly averages revealed that Q2 2015 recorded the worst power rating, while Q3 of 2014 recorded the best power rating so far at 45 percent.

In a general view of power tracking by geo-political zones over a 30 month period, the larger proportion of Nigerian households across all geopolitical zones have generally seen no improvement in power supply. In line with this, the South-West zone recorded the lowest overall average power improvement rating at 32 percent over the period in view, thus indicating that this zone is the worst hit zone in terms of poor power supply. On the other hand, the South-East zone seemed to have enjoyed relatively the best power supply with an overall average of 41 percent.

Finally, while NOIPolls continues to provide valuable data on the power sector from the consumer end through its ‘Monthly Power Tracking’, it becomes more critical for all other stakeholders to also conduct consistent step by step evaluations of strategies, transformation and intervention programmes developed to revive the power sector; especially from the generation and transmission end in order to identify gaps, while developing long term strategies that will transform the entire power sector.

Brief background

Going as far back as 1999, Nigeria had 79 generation units out of which only 19 were operational and the average daily generation and distribution was down to 1,750 MW. No new electric power infrastructure was constructed between 1989 – 1999, during that ten year period there was a lack of development which further aided in pushing the sector into the abyss of rot and decay. The Federal Government in 2005 embarked on a sector reform through privatization to ensure adequate and equitable generation and distribution of electricity while also setting up a commission to serve as the regulatory body overseeing the sector. This was done to ensure fair pricing and sufficient generation, transmission and distribution of electricity across board.[1]

Sadly despite the successful unbundling of NEPA and the sale of its assets to private investors as generating, transmissions and distribution companies, the situation of power keeps retrogressing as Nigerians are still experiencing major power black outs with an average maximum of 7.1 hours per day

With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms. The polls were conducted monthly to explore the amount of power supply received daily and expenditure on power supply, as well as the state of power supply to households and its effect to consumers especially in the use of alternative sources of power and it financial implications.

In conducting the power polls, respondents were asked 5 specific questions every month; one of these questions would be discussed in this release. The result presented is a 30-Month tracking of power supply to households from the consumer end. For full report, please contact NOIPolls on enquiries@noi-polls.com

Key Findings

Month on Month Consumers’ Description of the State of Power Supply to Their Households

For every month respondents were asked to rate the current state of power supply to their households. This question is critical in assessing the state of the Nigerian power sector from the consumer end, even in the face of reformation in the Nigerian power sector. Findings revealed that overall Nigerians have rarely seen improvement in power supply as only an average of 36.4 percent attested to seeing improvement in power supply over a 30-month period. This figure represents only about one third of the entire adult population who have seen improvement.

A closer view at the month on month record of the state of power within the period in view, revealed an erratic situation in the supply of power as there has been no clear consistency in the state of power to households.  For instance just when more than half celebrated seeing improvements in August (51 percent) and September (52 percent) 2014 (which also represented the best power rating since January 2013), the reverse was the case for the proceeding month (October 2014; 36 percent) with a huge dip of 16-points in the proportion of households that saw improvement in October 2014.

Similarly, there has been a consistent decline in the proportion of Nigerians who saw improvement from January to May 2015; although in June 2015, there was a major jump as 44 percent of Nigerians attested to seeing improvement in power supply to their households over the past one month; thus representing a significant increase of 27-points from May 2015.

The monthly tracking of state of power supply to households, also presents the proportion of Nigerians who have seen no improvement in power supply over a 30 month period and findings revealed that an average of 63.6 percent of Nigerians have seen no improvement in power supply. Moreover the months of April (80 percent) and May (83 percent) 2015 recorded the worst power rating so far since NOIPolls commenced tracking power improvements.

Overall Power Tracking By Geo-Political Zones Over 30 Months

Power tracking by geo-political zones over a 30 month period also revealed that the larger proportion of Nigerian households across all geopolitical zones have generally seen no improvement in power supply. Although, the South-West zone recorded the lowest overall average power rating at 32 percent over the period in view, thus indicating that this zone is the worst hit zone in terms of poor power supply, the South-East zone seemed to have enjoyed relatively the best power supply with an overall average of 41 percent.

Quarterly Averages Of Power Tracking By Geo-Political Zones- Q1 2013-Q2 2015

Quarterly averages of power tracking by geo-political zones revealed that there has been no exception in the experience of poor power supply across all geopolitical zones, even as all the geo-political zones experienced downward movements in the state of power supply from Q1 2015 to Q2 2015, the highest decline was seen by the South-East zone with an 11-point decline from Q1 (43 percent) to Q2 (32 percent), even though this zone recorded the best power rating in Q2 compared to other zones.

Nationwide Quarterly Averages Q1 2013-Q2 2015

Nationwide quarterly averages revealed that Q2 2015 recorded the worst power supply, thus representing the worst quarterly power rating.   This is evident from findings which revealed that only an average of 27% of Nigerians saw an improvement in power supply in their area, while a massive 73% percent did not see any improvement in Q2 2015. In addition, Q3 of 2014 recorded the best power rating so far at 45 percent.

A Year-on-Year trend analysis of the state of power from 2013 to 2015

A Year-on-Year trend analysis of the state of power from 2013 to 2015 revealed the first half of 2015 seemed to have recorded the worst power supply so far, however in a full year comparison between 2013 and 2014, 2014 seemed to have recorded the best power supply to Nigerian households, even as the best power ratings were recorded in the months of August (51 percent) and September (52 percent) of the same year.

In Conclusion, findings from the release revealed that Nigerians have continued to suffer poor power supply, given that only about one third of the entire adult population attested to seeing improvement in power over a 30 month period; not withstanding transformation and intervention programmes carried out to revive the sector. The current state of the power sector has in no doubt immeasurably impacted the general wellbeing of Nigerians as well as the overall performance of the Nigerian economy. The results therefore imply that this sector will in a long time require utmost attention by the government and other key stakeholders; moreover Nigerians have set this as high priority in their expectations for the new administration.

Survey Methods

The opinion poll was conducted from Q1 2013 to Q2 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. A total of 30,000 Phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed within a 30-month period. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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[1] http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/unrealised-expectations-in-power-sector-and-outlook-for-2015/198178/