Nigerians Witness Significant Improvement in Power Supply Over Q3 2015

Abuja, Nigeria. October 6th 2015 – Power poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the third quarter of 2015 have revealed that about 64 percent of Nigerian households experienced tremendous improvement in power supply over the third quarter (Q3) of 2015 (July –September 2015); this value represents a huge increase by 37-points in this category of Nigerian households from Q2 2015 where only 27 percent of households saw improvement. This surge in power supply is likely connected to the recent general improvement in power generation, even as a historic increase in peak capacity generation to 4800 Megawatts was recorded within this period.[1] Further analysis revealed that the power sector over this period recorded steady improvement in power supply, with an all-time high experienced in September 2015 (69 percent).

Analysis of quarterly trends by geo-political zones over a 33-month period revealed that in Q3 2015 a larger proportion of Nigerian households across geo-political zones experienced significant improvement in power supply when compared to Q2 2015. The highest improvement was recorded in the North-Central region (70 percent) and lowest was recorded by the South-South region (47 percent). 

Finally, while power supply has significantly improved nationwide, it is imperative that the recent increase in peak capacity generation be sustained and improved upon with consideration given to annual population growth rate and energy demand projections. Also, energy conservation technologies should be explored so as to augment energy deficits when there is a drop in power generation.

Brief background

The challenges preventing the Nigerian power sector from meeting the energy demand of its population are enormous, ranging from poor maintenance of  generating plants, receding water levels at hydroelectric power stations, and poor supply of gas to turbines; to mention but a few. Massive investments have been made in the power sector over the years without a corresponding improvement.

Based on this trend, the Nigerian power sector was privatized in 2013. However, it continued to experience a dearth in infrastructure almost two years into the privatization of the generation and distribution segments of the sector. In September 2015, peak capacity generation was about 4800 megawatts scaling up past the average 3,000 megawatts that have been consistently generated since the power sector privatization in Q3 2013[2].  While this clearly represents a tremendous improvement in power generation, it must be noted that the projected energy demands for 2015 is recorded 31,210 Mega-Watts[3].

With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms. The polls were conducted monthly to explore the amount of power supply received daily and expenditure on power supply, as well as the state of power supply to households and its effect to consumers especially in the use of alternative sources of power and it financial implications.

In conducting the power polls, respondents were asked 5 specific questions each month; one of these questions would be discussed in this release. The result presented is a 33-Month tracking of power supply to households from the consumer end. For a full report, please contact NOIPolls on enquiries@noi-polls.com

Key Findings

Successive Monthly Description of the State of Power Supply to Nigerian Households

Respondents were asked monthly to describe the state of power supply to their households. This question specifically assesses the state of the Nigerian power sector from a consumer stand point. Findings revealed a tremendous improvement in power supply in Q3 2015 (July-September 2015) as confirmed by an average of 64 percent of Nigerian households.

The month of September recorded the highest improvement (69 percent) seen in Q3 and over the 33-Month period. This percentage represents more than two-thirds of adult population who have seen improvement and an increase by 25-points from the end of Q2 2015 (44 percent). This improvement in power supply especially in September 2015 may have been a direct effect of recent stringent regulations in the Nigerian power sector inspired by the new government, thus resulting in a historic peak capacity generation of 4800 Megawatts[4] within this period. A closer analysis on the state of power supply within the period in view shows that there has been a steady improvement in power supply from June 2015, while hitting an all-time high in September 2015 (69 percent) from the commencement of the NOIPolls power tracking in Q1 2013. This shows a difference of 19-points from its previous all-time high of 52 percent recorded at the end Q3 of 2014.

In the same manner, monitoring of the state of power supply to Nigerian households offers an insight to the proportion of Nigerians who have not seen any remarkable improvement in power supply over a 33 month period. To this effect, findings revealed that an average of 36 percent of Nigerians claimed they saw no improvement in power supply in Q3. Results also revealed May 2015 recorded the highest portion (83 percent) of Nigerians who saw no remarkable improvement in power supply, while September 2015 (31 percent) recorded the lowest proportion of Nigerian households who have seen no improvement in power supply over 33-months.

Quarterly Averages of Power Tracking by Geo-Political zones-Q1 2013 – Q3 2015

Quarterly average values of power supply across geo-political zones revealed an improvement across all geo-political zones at the end of Q3 2015. Findings show that the South-West region experienced the highest improvement (68 percent) average across geo-political zones, it improved from Q2 2015 to the end of Q3 2015 by 42-points, similarly the South-South zone experienced the lowest average quarterly improvement 47 percent, only increasing by 26- points.

Nationwide Quarterly Average Q1 2013 –Q3 2015

Nationwide quarterly averages revealed that the lowest power rating (27 percent) was recorded in Q2 2015. However, the best power rating (64 percent) was experienced in Q3 2015 surging by 37-points; this simply implies that more Nigerians are beginning to see improvement in power supply. Findings also revealed that the only 36 percent of Nigerians attested to not seeing any improvement in power supply during Q3 2015, it dropped by 37-points from its previous all-time high of 73 percent recorded in Q2 2015.

 A Year-on-Year trend analysis of the state of power from 2013 to 2015

A Year-on-Year trend analysis of the state of power supply in Nigeria from 2013 to 2015 revealed that the initial months (January-May) of 2015 seemed to have recorded the worst power supply; with a steady decline in the proportion of Nigerians who experienced improvement in power supply compared to 2013 and 2014 mid Q2 2015. However, the reverse was the case in the proceeding months (June- September 2015), where power supply saw steady improvements as well as the best improvements compared with 2013 and 2014. 

In Conclusion, findings from the poll revealed that Nigerians experienced a tremendous improvement in power supply in Q3 2015; with an all-time high recorded in September 2015 at 69 percent. This all-time high improvement in power supply can likely be as a result of the historic generation peak capacity also achieved in Q3 2015. While anecdotal evidence revealed that some Nigerians have attributed this improvement in power mainly to increased rainfall within the same period, these views will be validated in subsequent power tracking polls which would clearly reveal the progress made in the power sector even with change in seasons.

Survey Methods

The opinion poll was conducted from Q1 2013 to Q3 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. A total of 33,000 phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country were interviewed within a 33-month period by NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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[1] http://www.punchng.com/business/power-generation-falls-by-356-8mw-in-three-weeks/

[2] http://dailytrust.com.ng/daily/business/35596-nigerian-electricity-stagnant-at-3000mw

[3]http://www.energy.gov.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=121:commission-puts-2015-power-need-at-31240mw-&catid=1:latest-news

[4] http://www.nercng.org/index.php/media-and-publicity/press-releases/302-14-man-task-team-instated-to-achieve-5-000-mw-by-month-end