In Q3, 2015; The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index Stood at 45.3 Points, While The Consumer Confidence Index Stood at 67-Points

Abuja, Nigeria. November 3rd, 2015 –The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for Q3, 2015 revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) which assesses how Nigerians feel about their lives, slightly increased by 0.2-points to stand at 45.3-points in Q3 2015. This slight increase suggests a slight increase in contentment level of Nigerians with their daily lives. More findings revealed that among the indices that constitute the PWBI, the Economic Index experienced the highest increase by 3.5-points; while the Health and Religion Indices both declined by 1.2-points, though they still record high points at 75.0-points and 89.0-points respectively.

Comparatively, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) which measures the degree of optimism that Nigerian households feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation; increased by 4.7-points to stand at 67-points in Q3, 2015. This increase in consumer confidence could imply that Nigerians are expected to increase their purchases of goods and services. In anticipation of this change, manufacturers can increase production and stocks whereas, large organisations can increase employment rates. Government can expect improved tax revenues based on the increase in consumer spending. Therefore, it is advised that businesses, economic analysts, investors and the government should take advantage of the increase in consumer confidence, though with caution because the CCI can change following the release of the report.[1]

Furthermore, the two independent variables of the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) experienced an increase of 12.3-points to stand at 45.9-points while the Expectation Index (EI) decreased by 1.0-point to stand at 83.0-points. These are the key highlights from the Q3 2015 Portfolio of Indices Result Release.

In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country.

Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings, while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria.

This report presents the Q3, 2015 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).

The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI)

In Q3 2015, the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) experienced a slight increase of 0.2-point to stand at 45.3-points. The Economic Index experienced the highest increase by 3.5-points in Q3, 2015 indicating that Nigerians are slightly contented with their personal well-being though the index is slightly below average.

An assessment of the indicators that make up the PWBI revealed that Nigerians are pleased in terms of their Physical Health (74.8-points), Social Interaction (78.7-points), and Religion (88.6-points); while Nigerians are neutral in terms of their Achievement in Life (52.9-points), Standard of Living (53-points) and Personal Security (62.7-points). On a different note, Nigerians are not satisfied with their Personal Economic Situation (43.2-points). Although, this Index experienced the highest increase in Q3, 2015 by 3.5-points, it has continually remained the lowest ranked indicator in Q1, Q2 and Q3, 2015.

Trend analysis of the indicators that make up the PWBI revealed that the Health and Religion Indices both experienced a decline of 1.2-points each in Q3, 2015 from Q2 2015.

Quarterly trend analysis indicated that the NOIPolls PWBI experienced an increase of 0.2-point when compared to Q2 2015.

Please clcik here to see the full PWB report 

The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

The Consumer Confidence Index measures the level of confidence individual households have in the performance and overall health of the economy. It is important because consumer spending drives a certain percentage of Nigeria’s GDP. In view of this, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 4.7-points to stand at 67-points in Q3, 2015. This slight leap suggests that consumers may have slightly increased their consumption in Q3, 2015.

The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence index consists of 2 Sub-components; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI increased by 12.3-points to stand at 45.9-points; indicating an increase in consumption of goods and services by Nigerians and expectation of a better future. Investors are particularly advised to take advantage of an increase in consumer confidence as Nigerians at this point may purchase more goods and services. Conversely, recent data trend shows that the Expectation Index (EI) dipped by 1.0-points to 83-points in Q3, 2015. A high expectation for the future indicates that consumers will be more willing to spend more in coming months.

Trend analysis revealed that the overall CCI increased by 4.7-point in Q3, 2015 when compared to Q2, 2015.

Please click here to see the full CCI report  

In conclusion, current results have revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) experienced a 0.2-point increase in Q3, 2015.  On the other hand, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 4.7-points. Finally, the two independent variables of the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) experienced an increase of 12.3-points while the Expectation Index (EI) decreased by 1-point in Q3, 2015.

Survey Methods

The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in Q3, 2015. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%.

In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 12,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited is the No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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[1] http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/consumerconfidence.asp