In November 2015; President’s Job Performance Rating Decreases By 16 Points To Stand At 64 Percent

Abuja Nigeria, December 18th 2015 - latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls have revealed that the President’s approval rating for November 2015 stood at 64 percent. This represents a 16-points decline from October 2015 (80 percent) and a 6-points decline from June 2015 (70 percent) which was the initial job performance appraisal of the President.  The impact on this approval rating was due to the general decline in the President’s approval rating across all regions; with the greatest decline seen in the South East with a 43-point decline in November (28 percent ) from October (71 percent). This decline this could be a direct reflection of the heightened agitation by the IPOBs youths (Indigenous People of Biafra) in the South-East zone.  

More findings revealed that the President’s job performance is mostly because of the perceived reason that he has ‘brought change’ (20 percent) and the ‘improved power supply’ (18 percent) across the country amongst other reasons. On the other hand, most respondents who disapproved his job performance claimed that ‘there hasn’t been any realistic change in governance’ (71 percent) among others reasons and worsened power supply (15 percent) as well as ‘delayed payment of salaries’ (6 percent). Furthermore, the President achieved an average (3) points rating (on a scale of 1-5 where 1 is very poor and 5 excellent) in terms of his performance in National Security, Education, Healthcare, Infrastructure, Conflict Resolution, and Agriculture and Food Security, while he still performed poorly in Job creation where he has always been rated only (1) since assumed office as president.

Also, the larger proportion (54 percent) of Nigerians surveyed reported that electricity supply to their household has improved over the past one month and this represents a 15-points decrease when compared to September 2015 and an 8 point decrease when compared to October. In addition, 15 percent of Nigerians experienced no difference at all in electricity supply, while (31 percent) claimed that electricity supply to their households has either worsened or gone bad within the past one month. These are some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Poll conducted in the week of November 24th2015.

These results represent the sixth approval rating for President Muhammadu Buhari’s job performance and the eleventh in the 2015 monthly series of governance polls, conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding the approval rating of the President, and the current state of electricity supply in the country.

Respondents to the poll were asked four specific questions. The first is to assess the opinion of Nigerians on the monthly performance of President Mhammadu Buhari over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Buhari in the past 1 month? Findings revealed that 64 percent (41 percent + 23 percent) of adult Nigerians interviewed approved of the President’s job performance. On the contrary 16 percent (10 percent + 6 percent) disapproved of his performance which is a 9 point increase in disapproval when compared to October which stood at 7 percent. Also 20 percent remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved which is a 7 point increase in neutrality when compared to October which stood at 13 percent.

More analysis on the President’s performance by geo-political zones indicated that the North-West zone (86 percent: 69 percent + 17 percent) and North-East zone (85 percent: 63 percent + 22 percent) had the highest percentage of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance. Contrarily, the South-East zone (39 percent: 28 percent + 11 percent) and South-South zone (31 percent: 15 percent + 16 percent) had the largest proportion of respondents who disapproved of the President’s job performance. The South-East zone’s presidential job approval rating declined by 41 points from 71 percent in October to 28 percent in November which is the highest drop in possible approval points since June and this could be a direct reflection of the heightened agitation by the IPOBs youths (Indigenous People of Biafra) in the South-East zone.

In order to ascertain the respondent’s reasons for either approving or disapproving of the president’s job performance, they were asked ‘why do you approve’ and ‘why don’t you approve’.  To this effect, Nigerians cited ‘he has brought change’ (20 percent), ‘improved power supply’ (18 percent) and ‘improved security’ (16 percent) amongst other reasons such as ‘good leadership skill’ (9 percent), ‘he is a good man’ (6 percent) etc. as reasons responsible for the approval of the President’s job performance. Incongruently, respondents who disapproved his job performance were of the opinion that ‘there haven’t been any change’ (74 percent) and ‘the power supply has worsened’ (15 percent). These topped the lists of reasons given by Nigerians for disapproving the President’s job performance in November 2015. Also, 6 percent cited ‘delayed payment of salaries’, while 3 percent stated he was ‘biased in selecting key leaders’ among others reasons for their disapproval.

Monthly trend analysis on the President’s performance rating in November 2015 reveals a 16-points decline in the President’s approval rating which stood at 64 percent. this rating also represents the woerst rating for the president since he assumed office.

Trend analysis by geo-political zones revealed a general decline in the president’s job approval rating for the month of November. The North-West zone 86 percent had the highest rating followed by North-East 85 percent although they declined 6 and 2 points respectively when compared to the month of October. Also the highest decrease was recorded in the South-East zone 28 percent and South-South Zone 43 percent. In terms of percentage points decline, South-East and North Central Zones recorded the highest at 41 and 21 points respectively when compared to October’s president’s job approval rating. This implied that these two zones strongly disapproved of the president’s job performance for the month of November.

To evaluate the performance of the President on some key indicators of the economy of the country, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of the President Buhari in the following areas?  (1) Job Creation (2) National Security (3) Education (4) Healthcare (5) Infrastructure (6) Conflict Resolution (7) Agriculture & Food Security. The outcome shows that the President achieved an average (3) rating in terms of his performance in aforementioned key areas except in Job creation, where he performed poorly (1).

Finally, to find out the rate of improvement of electricity supply in Nigeria, respondents were asked: How would you describe electricity supply in your area in the last 1 month?  Findings revealed that the larger proportion (54 percent: 29 percent + 25 percent) of Nigerians reported that electricity supply to their household improved in the last one month. Contrarily, 15 percent indicated that there was no difference at all, while 31 percent (16 percent + 15 percent) asserted that electricity supply to their households within the past one month has remained bad or has worsened. Agreeably 29 percent of the respondents in November still said electricity has improved very much which is the same as at October.

Analysis by geo-political zones revealed that the North-East (88 percent: 64 percent + 24 percent) and North-West zones (70 percent: 46 percent + 24 percent) accounted for the larger proportion of Nigerians who agreed that electricity has improved very much and very little respectively, whereas the South-West (22 percent: 4 percent + 18 percent) and South-South zones (38 percent: 9 percent + 29 percent) accounted for the proportion of Nigerians who reported a poor state of electricity supply to their households over the past month.

In conclusion, 6 in 10 Nigerians approved the President’s job performance in November 2015. This decline in the approval rating is indicative that the President needs to reassure Nigerians of his heightened commitment to bringing the much awaited change in the economy. Also, the President achieved an average (3) rating in terms of his performance in National Security, Education, Healthcare, Infrastructure, Conflict Resolution, Agriculture and Food Security but he performed poorly in Job creation. With Job creation scoring very poor for 5 months now shows there is a great need to diversify the economy and create more job opportunities. Finally, majority (54 percent) of Nigerians surveyed reported that electricity supply to their household has improved over the past one month. The 8 points drop in the state of power is indicative of marginal decline in the amount of power being generated recently.

Survey Methods

The opinion poll was conducted in the week of October 26th 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

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NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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