President Buhari’s Job Approval Rating Further Decreases By 2-Points To 63 Percent In December 2015.

Abuja Nigeria, January 19th, 2016 - Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls have revealed that the President’s approval rating for December 2015 stood at 63 percent. This represents a 2-points decline from November 2015 (65 percent) and a 7-points decline from June 2015 (70 percent) which was the initial job performance appraisal of the President. This is also the poorest rating since the president assumed office in June 2015. The overall highest ratings in his job performance in December 2015 was mostly seen across 3 geo-political zones; the North-East (82 percent), North-West (80 percent) and South-West (71 percent) while the least ratings was visibly seen in 2 geopolitical zones; the South-East (29 percent) and the South-South (42 percent) with the South-East zone having (1-point) increase when compared to the (28 percent) obtained in November 2015.

Additional results from this survey showed that the approval of President Buhari’s job performance could be attributed to the perceived ‘improved security’ (26 percent), ‘improved power supply’ (16 percent), and ‘He has brought change’ (15 percent) among other reasons. On the other hand, majority (64 percent) of the respondents who disapproved his job performance claimed that ‘there hasn’t been any visible change in governance’, ‘worsened economy’ (11 percent) and ‘declined power supply’ (10 percent) among other reasons. Also, considering the age-group, Nigerians within the age range of 18-25years (72 percent) and 26-60years (70 percent) has the highest approval rating for president Buhari  while the age range of 60+ (26 percent) and 36-45years (20 percent) disapproved of his performance in December 2015. Furthermore, President Buhari achieved an average (3) points rating on a scale of 1-5 (where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent) in terms of his performance in National Security, Education, Healthcare, Infrastructure, Conflict Resolution, and Agriculture and Food Security, while he still maintained the (1) aggregate, as usual, in Job creation.

Additional findings revealed that 52 percent of Nigerian households claimed that electricity supply has improved over the past one month and this figure reveals a 2 points decrease when compared to November 2015, thus suggesting a slight decline in the state of power supply in Nigeria over the past month. Again, 29 percent of Nigerian households reported a worsened state of power supply, while 19 percent saw no difference at all in power supply over the month of December 2015.These are some of the key findings from Governance snap poll conducted in the week of December 17th 2015.

These results represent the seventh approval rating for President Muhammadu Buhari’s job performance and the twelfth in the 2015 monthly series of governance polls, conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding the approval rating of the President, and the current state of power supply in the country.

Respondents to the poll were asked four specific questions. The first sought to assess the performance of President Muhammadu Buhari over the past 1 month, respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of President Buhari over the past 1 month? Findings revealed that63 percent(31 percent + 32 percent)of adult Nigerians interviewed approved of President Buhari’s job performance and this represents a 2-point decline from the previous rating of 65 percent for November 2015.Contrarily,18 percent (14 percent + 4 percent)disapproved of his performance and this indicates a2-pointsincrease when compared to that of November 2015 which stood at16 percent. Also,19 percentof Nigerians interviewed neither approved nor disapproved of President Buhari’s job performance and it represents 1-pointincreasewhen compared to November 2015 which stood at20 percent.

More analysis on the president’s job performance across the geo-political zones revealed that North-East (80 percent: 56 percent + 24 percent) and North-West (82 percent: 46 percent + 36 percent) zones had the highest percentage of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance. On the contrary, the South-East (29 percent: 16 percent + 13 percent) and South-South (42 percent: 14 percent + 28 percent) had the largest proportion of respondents who disapproved of the President’s job performance. The South-East zone presidential job approval rating increased by 1-point, while South-South zone declined by 1-point when compared to that of November 2015. The result also revealed that the South-West had the highest percentage of Nigerians who approves the President’s job rating (71 percent: 21 percent +50 percent).

In order to ascertain the reasons for either approving or disapproving of the president’s job performance, respondents were asked: Why do you approve or disapprove of the President’s Job performance? Most Nigerians gave reasons for their positive response citing: ‘improved security’ (26 percent), ‘Improved Power Supply’ (16 percent), and ‘Fight against corruption’ (10 percent) among other reasons. On the other hand, respondents who disapproved gave reasons such as: there is ‘No change yet’ (64 percent), ‘worsened Economy’ (11 percent), ‘worsened power supply’ (10 percent) and ‘delayed payment of salaries’ (8 percent) among others.

Monthly trend analysis of the president’s approval rating in December 2015 reveals a 2-points decline in the job performance which stood at 63 percent. So far, this is the poorest rating of President Buhari from the time he took the mantle of leadership and the constant decline of his approval rating is suggestive of the growing expectations of Nigerians, which is mainly for the President to start delivering on his campaign promises. The 2-points decline provide a rationale for the reasons of ‘No change yet’ and the recent ‘fuel scarcity’ reported by the respondents who disapproved the President’s performance.

Similarly, trend analysis by geo-political zones revealed a general decline except for the South-West and South-East zones. The North-West recorded the highest rating with 82 percent followed by the North-East (80 percent),though there was a decline of 4-points and 6-points respectively when compared to November 2015.Also the highest decline was recorded in the South-East zone (29 percent) and South-South Zone (42 percent). Also, the South-West (71 percent) had highest increase of 5-points, while the North-Central (49 percent) had the highest decline of 7-points when matched with November 2015.

To gauge the performance of the president onsome key indicators of the economy of Nigeria, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of president Buhari in the following areas? (1) Job Creation (2) National Security (3) Education (4) Health (5) Infrastructure (6) Conflict Resolution (7) Agriculture and Food Security. The outcome shows that the President achieved an average rating of (3) in terms of his performance in the aforementioned key areas except in Job creation where he was rated poor (1) by the respondents. This further supports the National Bureau of Statistics reports which stated that unemployment rate in Nigeria increased to 9.90 percent in the third quarter of 2015 from 8.20 percent in the second quarter of 2015.[1]

Finally, to find out the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month, respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month?  Findings revealed that the larger proportion (52 percent: 20 percent + 32 percent) of Nigerians reported that power supply to their household improved over the past one month. While 19 percentindicated that there is no difference at all, 29 percent (21 percent + 8 percent) saw an improvement in power supply to their households within the past one month.

Analysis by geo-political zone revealed that the North-East (76 percent: 42 percent + 34 percent) and North-West (62 percent: 28 percent + 34 percent) zones accounted for the larger proportion of Nigerians who experienced an improvement in power supply, whereas, the South-West (42 percent: 32 percent + 10 percent)and South-East (35 percent: 23 percent + 12 percent) zones accounted for the larger proportion of Nigerians who reported a poor state of power supply to their households over the past month.

In conclusion, more than 6 in 10Nigerians surveyed approved the President’s job performance in December 2015 reflecting a 2-point decline from November 2015. This could be attributed to the proportion of the respondents who said that they are yet to see the promised ‘change’ in this administration and the biting scarcity of fuel that loomed as at the time this poll was conducted among other reasons.

Also, the President achieved an average (3) rating in terms of his performance in National Security, Education, Healthcare, Infrastructure, Conflict Resolution, Agriculture and Food Security but he got a (1) rating in job creation aspect which means that majority of Nigerians are still craving to see the rate of unemployment reduced to the barest minimum in the country.

Finally, majority (52 percent) of Nigerians reported that electricity supply to their household has improved over the past one month. This reveals a 2-points decline when compared to November 2015 and is also suggestive that there is a lot of work to be done to sustain uninterrupted power supply in Nigeria.

Survey Methods

The opinion poll was conducted in the week of December 14th 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA). We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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[1] http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/