The President’s Job Approval Rating Drops By 13-Points To 57 Percent In February 2016.

Abuja Nigeria, March 17th, 2016 - Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls have revealed that President Muhammadu Buhari’s 9th job rating for February 2016 stood at 57 percent. This represents a 13-points decline from the ratings in January 2016 which stood at 70 percent. This decline in the approval rating is due to a general decline from all the geopolitical zones except for the North-East zone which increase by 7-points. The South-South (21-points), South-West (17-points) and North-Central zones (15-points) recorded the highest decline.

More findings revealed that respondents who approved the President’s job rating gave reasons which majorly includes improved security (25 percent) and fight against corruption (18 percent) amongst others. On the other hand, respondents who disapproved his job performance claimed that there hasn’t been any realistic change in governance (50 percent), whereas 14 percent stated that it is due to the worsened economy amongst other reasons.

Furthermore, on a scale of 1-5 where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent the president was rated an average of 3-points in terms of his performance in National Security, Education, Healthcare and Conflict Resolution while he was rated below average (2-points) in job creation, infrastructure and Agriculture and Food Security.

In addition, 39 percent of Nigerians reported that they experienced an improvement in electricity supply to their household within the past one month. This represents far-reaching 21-points decline when compared to January 2016 which stood at 60 percent. According to news report, it is certainly not the best of time for electricity consumers in Nigeria as power generation is reported to have further dropped to less than 1,600 megawatts from an average 4,387 megawatts, throwing up more communities in the country into darkness.[1]

On the other hand, 22 percent of the respondents claimed that there is no difference in the state of electricity supply to their households, while 39 percent reported that electricity supply to their households has either worsened or gone bad within the past one month. These are some of the key findings from Governance snap poll conducted in the week of February 22nd 2016.

This result is the ninth approval rating for President Muhammadu Buhari’s job performance and the second in the monthly series of governance polls for the year 2016, conducted by NOIPolls in order to represent the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding the approval rating of the President, and the current state of electricity supply in the country.

Respondents to the poll were asked four specific questions. The first question assessed the opinion of Nigerians on the monthly performance of President Mhammadu Buhari over the past 1 month and findings revealed that almost 6 in 10 adult Nigerians (57 percent: 24 percent + 33 percent) approved of the President’s job performance. On the contrary, 26 percent (19 percent + 7 percent) of the respondents disapproved of the president’s job performance representing a significant 12-points decline in February rating.

More analysis on the President’s performance by geo-political zones indicated that the South-South (21-points), South-West (17-points) and North-Central (15-points) recorded the highest decline in this month’s approval rating. However, the North-East zone (7-points) is the only region that experienced an increase in the President’s job rating

In order to ascertain the respondent’s reasons for approving of the President’s job performance, Nigerians cited ‘improved security’ (25 percent) and the fight against corruption (18 percent) amongst others as top reasons for approving his job performance. Contrarily, respondents who disapproved the president’s job performance stated that ‘there is no change yet’ (50 percent) and that the ‘economy has worsened’ (32 percent) amongst other reasons. This is indicative of a growing impatience amongst Nigerians due to the state of the economy occasioned by the increasing exchange rate and declining revenue.

Monthly trend analysis on the President’s performance rating in February 2016 reveals a 13-points decrease in the President’s job performance approval rating when compared to January 2016. This represents the lowest approval rating of President Buhari since NOIPolls started its approval rating of the President nine months ago. This is reflective of the influence of the economic situation and the growing desire of Nigerians to completely feel the impact of the perceived promised change.

Trend analysis by geo-political zones revealed a significant decrease in the President’s job performance rating in 5 geo-political zones except the North-East zone which increased by 7-points. The increase in the North-East zones is evident of the resumption of economic activities and the relative peace currently being experienced in the region as the Nigerian military and other security agencies synergy has help in curtailing to a certain extent the destructive activities of insurgency in the region. On the on hand, the South-South (21-points), South-West (17-points) and North-Central (15-points) zones recorded the highest decline when compared to the January 2016.

To evaluate the performance of the President on some key economic indicators of the economy of the country, the outcome shows that the President scared average (3) mark in terms of his performance in National Security, Education, Healthcare and Conflict Resolution, whereas he was rated below average (2 points) in job creation, infrastructure and Agriculture and Food Security.

Lastly, in order to find out the rate of improvement of electricity supply in Nigeria, findings revealed that 39 percent (16 percent + 23 percent) of Nigerians reported that electricity supplied to their homes improved in the last one month. This represents a 21-point decline when compared to January 2016 which stood at 60 percent. This is expected as news report revealed that power generation in Nigeria have further dropped to less than 1,600 megawatts from an average 4,387 megawatts.

On the other hand, 39 percent (22 percent + 17 percent) of the respondents surveyed revealed that electricity supply to their households within the past one month has worsened, while 22 percent indicated that there was no difference at all in electricity supply in February 2016.

Analysis by geo-political zones revealed that the North-West (55 percent: 29 percent + 26 percent) and North-East zones (53 percent: 24 percent + 29 percent) accounted for the larger proportion of Nigerians who experienced an improved electricity supply, whereas the South-West (69 percent: 42 percent + 27 percent) and South-East (43 percent: 22 percent + 21 percent) accounted for the higher percentage of Nigerians who experienced a worsened state of electricity supply within the past one month. 

In conclusion, almost 6 in 10 Nigerians approved the President’s job performance in February 2016 and this is a 13-points decline from January rating and the lowest approval rating since the President assumed office in May 2015. This might have been triggered by the high exchange rate which has reduced importation and there is not enough disposable income as perceived by the increasing inflation.

Finally, with Job creation, infrastructure and Agriculture being rated below average shows there is a great need to diversify the economy and create more job opportunities for Nigerians. The poor state of some federal roads and electricity supply should be a foremost priority of the government to tackle within this Fiscal year. Also, the epileptic state of electricity supply is reflective of the complaints by Nigerians that the new electricity tariff introduced on the 1st of February is not commiserating with the availability of power, therefore, the need to ensure that Nigerians get the value for their money.

Survey Methods

The opinion poll was conducted in the week of February 22nd 2016. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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[1] http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/03/power-generation-drops-to-1580-6mw/