Nigerians Experienced Continuous Decline In Power Supply Between January and June 2016

Abuja, Nigeria. August 17th 2016 – New aggregated power poll results released by NOIPolls for a six-month period, between January to June 2016 revealed a downward trend in power supply to Nigerian Households from the month of January down to the month of June, 2016. Following a relatively high record in January at 60 percent improvement, there was a consistent decline in power supply to households through June 2016, with the highest dip recorded in February at 21-Points from January 2016. These findings are reflections of the challenges faced by the power sector, one of which is the issue of vandalism of oil and gas installations. For instance, the vandalization which occurred in the Escravos area of Delta State resulted in a drop in power generation from about 3,600 megawatts (MW) to 2,500 MW, translating to a loss of 900MW in May 2016.[1]

Furthermore, the poll revealed that average daily cumulative hours of power supply experienced in Nigerian households nationwide in the month of January, 2016 stood at 10.5 hours; representing the highest daily cumulative hours of power supply during the six months in view. In addition, the month of May, 2016 recorded the lowest daily cumulative power supply at 5.6 hours within the same period.

Finally, although several efforts are being made by the Government to improve on power supply in the country such as the recent commissioning of four gas power stations in Q2 2016; It is however clear that these efforts are yet to translate into actual power improvement to impact the lives of Nigerians. Besides, these reform efforts can take a long gestation period from conceptualisation to implementation.

These are some of the key findings from the aggregated power sector poll conducted by NOIPolls over a period of six months (January to June 2016).

Background

The Nigerian power sector improved tremendously in the third quarter (Q3) of 2015, with Nigerians enjoying enormous electricity supply as a result of increased generation and a historical peak capacity of 4817 Mega Watts (MW) achieved within this period. This improvement continued till the first quarter (Q1) of 2016, but also spiralled downwards within the same quarter as a historic system collapse was recorded within this period and the resultant effect was a Zero Mega Watts ( 0 MW) generation that led to a nationwide drop in power supply.[2] This downward trend and collapse has been blamed on the degree of destruction on infrastructure and gas pipelines vandalism that has taken place through the years, as well as poor maintenance and upgrade of power installations across the country.

In a bid to address these irregularities that has characterized the Nigerian power sector, the federal government in the second quarter (Q2) of 2016, commissioned four gas power projects to boost electricity supply in Nigeria.[3] Also, in an effort to improve the state of electricity supply in Nigeria, the present administration has stated that all on-going power projects must be completed within the next 3 years.[4]

With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms. The polls were conducted monthly to explore the amount of power supply received daily as well as the state of power supply to households. The result presented is a 6-Month (January2016-June 2016) tracking of power supply to households from the consumers’ end in 2016.

Survey Findings

Nationwide Monthly Tracking of Power Supply

Analysis of findings from NOIPolls monthly tracking of power supply over a period of six months specifically from January to June, 2016 revealed that 60 percent of Nigerians nationwide stated that power supply has improved nationwide in the month of January. This figure represents the best rating for power from January 2016 to June 2016. However, the results depict a downward trend from the month of January down to the month June, 2016 (which recorded the lowest figure at 15 percent). The highest dip in power supply was recorded in the month of February from January 2016 at 21 points.

Nationwide Average Quarterly Trend of Power Supply

Furthermore, analysis of results revealed that the average improvement in supply nationwide, during Q1, 2016 stood at 44 percent. While average during Q2, 2016 stood at 17 Percent. This represents a -27 points dip from Q1, 2016.

Nationwide Monthly Average Cumulative Daily Power Supply

Also, analysis of poll results showed the average cummulative hours of power supply experienced by Nigerian households nationwide in the month of Jaunuary, 2016 stood at 10.5 hours daily. This represents the highest daily cummulative hours of power suppply during this six months period. The month of May, 2016 showed that Nigerians experienced 5.6 hours of daily cummulative power suppply and this represents the lowest during this six months period.

Quarterly Average Daily Cumulative Power Supply

Finally, the results revealed that the nationwide average daily cumulative power supply for Q1, 2016 stood approximately at 9 hours, while in Q2, 2106 it stood at approximately 6 hours; representing about 3 hours decline from the previous quarter.

In conclusion, the overall monthly tracking on the state of power supply to Nigerian households over this six months period clearly depicts that there is a serious decline in power supply, as evidently revealed. The improvement in power supply continually declined from 60 percent in January, 2016 to 15 percent in the month of June 2016. Also, the average quarterly daily cumulative hours of power supply declined from approximately 9 hours in Q1, 2016 to 6 in Q2, 2016.

Survey Methods

The opinion poll was conducted over a period of six months (January to June 2016). It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 6,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is the No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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[1] http://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2016/05/09/power-supply-drops-to-2500mw-after-militant-attacks/

[2] http://punchng.com/power-generation-crumbles-to-0mw-for-several-hours/

[3] http://www.nta.ng/news/infrastructure/20160614-nnpc-commissions-four-gas-power-projects-to-boost-electricity-supply-across-nigeria/

[4] http://www.nigeriaelectricityhub.com/?p=7587