Unfortunately, we can’t base our polls on volunteers. A survey of volunteers is a ‘non-probability sample” and the result will be true of volunteers but not of the public as a whole.
The major professional organizations of survey researchers have very clear codes of ethics for their members. These codes cover the responsibilities of pollsters with respect to the treatment of respondents, their relationships with clients and their responsibilities to the public when reporting on polls.
Events have a dramatic impact on poll results. Interpretation of a poll depends on when it was conducted relative to key events. Poll results that are several weeks or months old may be perfectly valid, but events may have erased any newsworthy relationship to current public opinion.
As long as sample is taken randomly and proportionate stratification is used to ensure that it is representative of all adults, the size of the universe doesn’t matter. This is well illustrated in a quote made by a famous US market researcher which reads, “If you don’t believe in random sampling, next me you are in for a blood test, ask the Doctor to take it all!.”
We have a database of phone numbers of over 70 million phone-owing Nigerian adults (18+) called The NOI Polls Number Database (NPND) stratified by Gender, Location and Age-group (18+). These are randomly selected and stratified from the millions of adult phone-owing Nigerians. There is currently an ongoing update of these phone numbers database. Numbers are not associated with names or addresses. For each poll, the computer randomly selects a new set of numbers to be called and interviewed.
Random interviews conducted in each poll cut across all networks in the proportion in which we have subscribers for them. According to Nigeria Communication Commission in December, 20181, the proportion for MTN subscribers is 38.9%, Globacom (26.2%), Airtel (25.6%) and 9-mobile (9.2%). Also, any Nigerian that is randomly selected in a particular poll from our database is not eligible to be called again until after six (6) months when he/she has an equal chance to be selected again among other Nigerians.
A sample of a minimum of 1000 interviews is the recognized sample required by polling organizations for ensuring accuracy on general economic and social issue surveys. This was scientifically approved and our methodology is in line with what our partner, Gallup Organization USA adopts, which is the World’s Premier Polls Organization.
To make sure a poll reaches an accurate sample of people, we ensure that every one we want to represent has an equal chance of being selected and also ensure that the final sample spoken to represents the target population (adults of 18+ years, i.e. about ~50% of Nigerian population).
NOI Polls uses a proportionate, stratified sampling design to select respondents to be interviewed in order to obtain accurate polls. With random sampling, we use a list of randomly drawn telephone numbers and contact people on those telephone numbers. Stratification are also set on several key demographics such as survey location, age-group, gender to make sure the final sample is made up of exactly the same type of people in the population as a whole and to the same proportions.
- Polls seek to measure public opinion and document the experiences of the public on a range of subjects.
- The results provide information for academics, researchers, and government officials and help to inform the decision-making process for policy makers and others.
- Without the representation of all the people then the media sources and governments would make decision based on their views, rather than the views of the whole country.
Our samples were drawn from among all phone-owing adults (18+) in each geo-political zones of the country
NC – North Central (Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau States and Federal Capital Territory – Abuja)
NE- North East (Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe States)
NW- North West (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara States)
SS- South South (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers States)
SE- South East (Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo States)
SW – South West (Eki , Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, and Oyo States)
We make thousands of calls weekly to conduct our polls. Individual Nigerians have the same chance of being called as anyone else living in Nigeria. According to the World Fact Book, Nigerian population is estimated to be about 1203 million+ (July 2018 est.). According to Nigerian National Population Commission (NPC), about 52%2 of Nigerian population are adults (18+) and an estimated number of adults in this age-group as at July 2018 is about 105.80 million. Therefore, the chance of a Nigerian being called in any poll is only about 1 in 105,800.
A properly conducted national poll of 1,000 interviews provides a sampling error of just plus or minus 4.65% at 95% confidence level.
Our questions are phrased in a way that do not bias the result one way or another and allow respondents to agree or disagree with the topic. They are very simple questions people quickly understand and are willing to respond to.
This is simply because the group of friends you have, represent one part of the population of Nigeria, but not the average views of all adults (18+) in Nigeria.
You should participate in surveys for many reasons. Polls are a way for you to express you opinions. Public officials and other leaders pay apt attention to the result of polls and often take them into account in their decision-making.