PETROL PRICE MONITORING REPORT

Almost 9 In 10 Nigerians Lament the Impact of Petrol Price Increase on Other Commodities.

Abuja, Nigeria: 16th August 2022– A new public opinion poll conducted by NOIPolls to evaluate the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) popularly called Petrol has revealed that an overwhelming majority of adult Nigerians (89 percent) nationwide lamented over the impact of the cost of petrol on their spending on other commodities and that of their household as it has drastically increased. Consequently, to estimate the average cost of petrol across the country, 53 percent of Nigerians who use petrol disclosed that they buy petrol at an average retail price between ₦181 – ₦200 per litre nationwide. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on state profile analysis, the highest average retail price for petrol (PMS) was recorded at ₦195.55 per litre in June 2022[1].

Though petrol scarcity appears to have returned to normal especially in Lagos and Abuja, news report has revealed that fresh scarcity may resurface in Abuja and environs due to claims by Oil Marketers that the National Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO) members were not willing to take petrol to the nation’s capital due to the poor condition of the roads. However, the NARTO’s President, Yusuf Othman, gave the assurance and debunked the claim in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Thursday 4th August 2022 in Lagos[2].

Further findings revealed that more than half of adult Nigerians (55 percent) interviewed disclosed that they use patrol to power their generators while 49 percent use it for cars. In line with this finding, data obtained from a power sector revealed that more than 40 percent of households in Nigeria own and use generators for their daily electricity requirements[3]. With power supply being one of the major business constraints in Nigeria according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), it has been revealed that Nigerians spend about $14 billion on generator and fuel yearly to prevent their businesses from crippling[4].

Furthermore, the poll result revealed that a larger proportion of Nigerians (57 percent) blame the Federal Government for being responsible for the scarcity of petrol in the Country. This is followed in a far distance by 11 percent who think the Marketers are responsible for shortage of petrol. In addition, while 16 percent blame both the Federal Government and the Marketers, another 16 percent stated that they don’t know who to blame between the two stakeholders. Finally, it is therefore important that all the stakeholders in the oil and gas sector synergize and intensify efforts, especially in monitoring exercises, to ensure that the petrol (PMS) allocated to each State of the Federation are dispensed to buyers at the official price range.

These are the key highlights from the recent Petrol Price Monitoring Poll conducted by NOIPolls in the week commencing August 8th, 2022, to evaluate petrol price across the country.

Survey Background

The issue of petrol scarcity and the frequent price changes in the country has continued to be a teething and perennial problem that has defied all possible solutions of tackling it. Various governments in the past have proffered different solutions all to no avail in trying to tackle the problem of petrol scarcity conundrum thereby leaving the citizens in unending petrol availability problems which lead to queues in most cases or price hike as recently witnessed.

The inability of the country to process its crude oil into refined petrol in the country due to non-functional refineries at our disposal has continued to be a major source of concern for anyone who cares to listen and the major reason why the country will continue to experience petrol scarcity from time to time. The question begging for answer is, what is the challenge aside the visible ones, sabotaging the inability of the country from tackling the challenges of petrol supply and distribution in the country. With four (4) refineries within the country and daily petrol consumption of 65.7 million litres per day and with a burgeoning population, it is only imperative if the petrol challenge is surmounted head on to ameliorate the issue of petrol scarcity and price change to bring succour to our teeming populace[5].

Furthermore, with increasing cost of petrol subsidy now put at 6 trillion naira by the estimation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it is a challenge on the economy hence should be given priority attention. Other challenges affecting the petroleum sector includes corruption, pipeline vandalism, sabotage, insecurity, and a lack of political will on the part of government. More so, there is the need for continuous and spirited effort to salvage the situation, to bring the much-needed succour to our teeming populace who are trapped in the quagmire of petrol supply. This will eventually improve the quality of life of our citizens[6]. Against this background, NOIPolls conducted this poll to monitor and evaluate the current price of petrol across the country.

Survey Findings

The first question sought to gauge the proportion of Nigerians who buy petrol, and the poll result revealed that 72 percent of adult Nigerians stated that they buy petrol. This assertion cuts across gender, geographical locations and age-groups, with at least 69 percent representation. Analysis by age-group shows that those aged 36 – 60 years accounts for the larger proportion of Nigerians who acknowledged that they buy petrol.

On the other hand, 28 percent mentioned that they do not buy petrol. Analysis by gender shows that there are more female (44 percent) than male (12 percent) respondents who do not buy petrol.

Respondents who stated that they buy petrol were further probed to ascertain where they purchase petrol. The poll finding revealed that a larger proportion of adult Nigerians (55 percent) buy petrol from the Independent Marketer’s filling stations. Analysis by region indicates that a higher fraction of Nigerians residing in the northern region buy petrol from independent marketers filling stations than those living in the southern region.

Furthermore, 37 percent of adult Nigerians confirmed that they buy petrol from major marketer’s filling stations. Also, analysis by regions shows that Nigerians living in the southern region buy petrol mostly from major marketer’s filling stations than those residing in the northern region. In addition, 8 percent of the respondents disclosed that they usually buy petrol from petrol hawkers, who are also known as black-market sellers.

Consequently, to estimate the average cost of petrol across the country, respondents were asked: How much do you normally buy a litre of petrol in your locality? The poll result showed that a larger proportion of adult Nigerians interviewed (41 percent) disclosed that they purchase a litre of petrol between ₦181 – ₦200. Further analysis by region shows that the southern region accounted for the higher percentage of Nigerians who purchase a litre of petrol within this average cost range.

Also, while 23 percent wailed that they purchase a litre of petrol between ₦201 – ₦220 across the country, 17 percent lamented over buying a litre of petrol above ₦200. Analysis by region shows that a larger proportion of Nigerians in this category reside in the northern region. On the contrary, 19 percent of the respondents admitted that they purchase petrol at a range between ₦175 – ₦180 per litre.

Additionally, the price paid per litre of petrol was cross tabulated by point of purchase. This reveals that 68 percent of Major Marketer filling stations sell petrol between ₦175 – ₦180 per litre, while 84 percent of Independent Marketer filling stations sell a litre of petrol between ₦201 – ₦220. However, 37 percent of petrol hawkers (black market) sell above ₦221 per litre.

Furthermore, to gain insight on consumption of petrol across the country, respondents were asked: How frequently do you buy petrol? The poll findings revealed that a larger proportion of adult Nigerians (31 percent) buy petrol daily. Analysis by gender indicates that Nigerians residing in the southern region buy more petrol daily than those living in the northern region. Also, analysis by age-group shows that those aged between 18 – 60 years purchase more petrol that those aged 61 years and above.

With respect to petrol usage, the poll result revealed that more than half of adult Nigerians (55 percent) interviewed disclosed that they use patrol to power their generators. It is worthy to note that they are more female (64 percent) than male (50 percent) respondents who mentioned that they use petrol to power their generators. Analysis by age-group shows that there is a decreasing use of generator as age increases. For instance, Nigerians aged between 18 – 35 years accounted for the larger proportion of respondents who use petrol to power their generators when compared to 48 percent of those aged 61 years and above.

Further analysis by region indicates that Nigerians residing in the southern region use more petrol to power their generators than their counterpart in the north.

Subsequently, when asked about preference on price and availability of petrol, the poll result revealed an even split as 47 percent of the respondent disclosed that the price of the product is of most importance to them, whereas 47 percent preferred availability over price. Analysis by gender suggests that while female respondents are more concerned about the price of the product, the male respondents are particularly about the availability of the product.

Furthermore, the poll result revealed that an overwhelming majority of adult Nigerians (89 percent) nationwide lamented over the impact of the cost of petrol on their spending on other commodities and that of their household as it has drastically increased. This assertion cuts across gender, geo-political zones, and age-group with at least 76 percent representation.

The poll findings further revealed that a larger proportion of Nigerians (57 percent) blame the Federal Government as they disclosed that they are responsible for the scarcity of petrol in the country. This is followed in a far distance by Nigerians (11 percent) who think the Marketers are responsible for the shortage of petrol. Also, while 16 percent blame both the Federal Government and the Marketers, another 16 percent stated that they don’t know who to blame between the two stakeholders.

When asked about removal of petrol subsidy, the poll result revealed that 60 percent of adult Nigerians do not support the complete removal of petrol subsidy. This affirmation cuts across gender, geo-political zones, and age-group with at least 52 percent representation. On the contrary, 32 percent supports the total removal of petrol subsidy in the country.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this poll has revealed that 41 percent of adult Nigerians who use petrol buy it at an average retail price between ₦181 – ₦200 per litre nationwide, resulting to an increase in spending on other commodities and that of their household as disclosed by 89 percent of those interviewed. Also, the poll finding has shown that a larger proportion of Nigerians buy petrol from Independent Marketer’s filling stations across Nigeria. This is a wakeup call for all stakeholders and government parastatals in charge of monitoring and regulation to ensure that the official price of petrol is strictly adhered to by the marketers. As a deterrent, the appropriate authorities must ensure that they continue to arrest and prosecute Marketers found to be involved in the hoarding and diversion of the products. Finally, major and independent marketers should synergy to resolve the issues resulting in price challenges which makes the dispensing prices vary among various marketers of the product.

Survey Methods

The opinion poll was conducted in the week commencing August 8th, 2022. It involved telephone interviews of a proportionate nationwide sample of 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical regions and 36 states and the FCT of the country. Interviews were conducted in 5 languages – Igbo, Hausa, Yoruba, Pidgin English, and English. Although we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained were statistically precise – within a margin of error of plus or minus 4.65%; we recognize that the exclusive use of telephone polling has its limitation of excluding non-phone-owning Nigerians. Nonetheless, with the country’s tele density put over 100 percent by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), we consider our telephone polling approach appropriate. Also, given the rigorous scientific process of randomization and stratification applied, we can confidently stand by the validity of our methodology and approach.

NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com.

Disclaimer

This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as authors whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited, or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect the views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact, or any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken because of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions, or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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[1] https://www.thecable.ng/nbs-sokoto-kaduna-residents-paid-above-n190-per-litre-for-petrol-in-june

[2] https://dailypost.ng/2022/08/04/narto-allays-concerns-over-fresh-petrol-scarcity-in-abuja/

[3] https://www.tekedia.com/40-of-nigerian-households-use-generators-spend-14bn-on-fuel/

[4] https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/17/nigerians-spend-14-billion-on-generators-fuel-as-senators-seek-ban-on-generator-use/

[5] https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/extractive/nigerias-phantom-petrol-consumption-rate-has-increased-by-10-31-million-litres-in-five-months/

[6] https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/05/petrol-subsidy-could-hit-n6trn-by-end-of-year-imf-warns/