Abuja, Nigeria. July 22nd, 2014 – The Second Quarter (Q2) results of the Petrol Price Monitoring Polls conducted by NOIPolls revealed a significant 33-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians who bought petrol above the official pump price from April (76%) to June 2014 (43%). Background research indicated that normalcy in the supply of petrol across Nigeria was restored in April 2014[1] following the fuel scarcity experienced in Quarter 1. Further findings revealed thatthe South-East (80%) and North-East (74%)zones accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who bought petrol Above N97 in Q2. Also, the majority of respondents that bought petrol from major marketer filling stations (54%) bought at the official price of N97 whereas the majority (76%) of respondents who bought petrol from independent marketer filling stations bought at a price above the official pump price. In addition, slightly more than half of the respondents(57%) were of the opinion that petrol price disparity stems from lack of monitoring of petrol stations by the government. These are some of the findings of the Petrol Price Monitoring Polls conducted in Quarter 2, 2014.
In January 2012, the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) along with the government announced an increase in the price of petrol from N65 to N141 as a result of the removal of subsidy for the reason that over a trillion Naira had been spent in 2011 on subsidy. Subsidy has been defined as money given by the State or Public Body to maintain low cost of commodities. Some critics view subsidy as a form of ‘protectionism’ or trade barrier because domestic goods are made affordable on an artificial basis. Within the Nigerian petroleum pricing context, the subsidy would then mean selling petrol below the cost of production or importation.
The removal of the fuel subsidy led to days of protest by Nigerians led by organised labour and civil societies who were unhappy about the potential hardship this action would cause Nigerians and the lack of notice by the government to implement such plans. In line with this, the government as a stop-gap measure partially removed subsidy, thereby bringing the official pump price of petrol to N97.
The key objective of the Petrol Price Monitoring Poll series is to monitor and analyze the pump prices paid by Nigerians nationwide, as well as to measure the perception of Nigerians about petrol price disparities, the uses of petrol and the removal of fuel subsidies.
Key Findings
Over 1,500 respondents were interviewed in the three months of Quarter 2 (April – June 2014) and the respondents were asked the same ten questions for each monthly poll, four of these questions will be reviewed in this press release. For full details of the findings, please e-mail: editor@noi-polls.com.
With the aim of identifying the main point of purchase of petrol, respondents were asked: Where do you mainly buy petrol? More than half of the respondents who buy petrol (57%) buy from major marketer filling stations. In addition, 34% buy petrol from independent marketer filling stations while 9% buy from petrol hawkers.
The South-West (69%) and North-Central (68%) zones, account for the highest proportion of respondents who purchase petrol from major marketer filling stations. The South-East zone (50%) recorded the highest percentage of respondents who mainly purchase petrol from independent marketer filling stations, while the North West and North-East zones, account for the highest proportion of respondents who mainly purchase petrol from hawkers with 16% each.
[1] http://www.nnpcgroup.com/
Monthly trend analysis revealed a continuous increase in the proportion of respondents that purchase petrol from major marketer filling station from April (53%) to June (62%) with a total of 9-points increase over Quarter 2. Also April recorded the highest period of purchase of petrol by respondent from petrol hawkers compared to May and June 2014
In assessing the price at which consumers normally buy petrol, respondents were asked: How much do you normally buy a litre of petrol? Responses revealed that an average of 39% of the respondents purchased petrol at the official price of N97 in Q2 2014, while an aggregate of 61% bought above the official price and of these 18% purchased at N120 per litre while 11% bought at N100.
The South-West (59%) and North-Central (57%) zones, account for the highest proportion of respondents who mainly buy petrol at N97.
Trend analysis across the 3 months in Q2 revealed a progressive increase in the proportion of respondents who buy petrol at the official price N97 from April (24%) to June (56%) 2014 with a total 32-point increase. This highlights the stability in petrol supply in June where more respondents purchased petrol at the official price compared with April 2014.
Further quarterly assessments revealed that more respondents bought petrol above the official price in Q2(60%) compared to Q1 (53%), this is likely due to the fact that more respondents bought petrol from independent marketer filling stations and slightly more from petrol hawkers than from major marketer filling stations in Q2 when compared to Q1 .
An assessment of the price paid per litre of petrol by point of purchase revealed that the majority of respondents who bought petrol from major marketer filling stations (54%) purchased at the official price of N97. The majority (76%) of respondents who bought petrol from Independent marketer filling stations bought at a price above the official pump price with most (23%) buying at N120. In addition, the majority of respondents who bought petrol from hawkers (48%) bought petrol above N130.
To gauge the opinions of Nigerians regarding possible reasons for the petrol price disparity in Nigeria, respondents were asked: What do you think is responsible for the difference in the pump price of petrol across filling stations? Responses revealed that slightly more than half of the respondents (57%) were of the opinion that petrol price disparity results from lack of monitoring of petrol stations by the Government. The South-East (61%) zone accounts for the highest proportion of this group.
In addition, 23% of the respondents reported that disparity in petrol price across Nigeria stems from the hoarding of petrol by petrol stations in order to exploit the public, while 19% of the respondents were of the opinion that the differences in the cost of importing petrol gave rise to petrol price disparity.
In order to assess the level of support for the removal of the fuel subsidy, respondents were asked the g question:Are you in support of the Government’s decision to remove the fuel subsidy? Findings revealed that slightly above half (53%) of the respondents are NOT in support of fuel subsidy removal. The South-East zone(61%) accounts for the highest proportion of respondents who do not suport fuel subsidy removal.
In addition, 47% of the respondents indicated support for the fuel subsidy removal and support was highest in the North-West zone (64%).
In conclusion, findings from this series of polls have revealed that an average of 60% of respondents purchased petrol above the official price in the second quarter of 2014; a 7-point increase from Q1 2014. More findings revealed a continuous decrease in the proportion of respondents who bought petrol above the official price N97from April (76%) to June 2014 (43%), with a total of 33-point decline. The South-West (59%) and North-Central (57%) zones account for the highest proportion of respondents who bought petrol at N97 in Q2.Furthermore, 54% of the respondents who bought petrol from major marketer filling stations purchased petrol at the official price of N97 and the majority (76%) of respondents who bought petrol from independent marketer filling stations bought at a price above the official pump price. In addition, 57% of the respondents think petrol price disparity results from lack of monitoring of petrol stations by the Government.
Survey Methods
The opinion poll was conducted monthly over the second quarter of 2014; April to June 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample of over 1,500 phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%.
NOIPolls Limited is Nigeria’s leading opinion polling and research organisation, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com
Disclaimer
This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.
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Email: editor@noi-polls.com
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