Executive Summary
Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define Earth’s local, regional, and global climates. [1] It is the latest challenge to sustainable human development [2] and a major risk to good development outcomes. Given this, NOIPolls polled on climate change to gauge Nigerians' awareness and attitude to the climate change phenomenon.
The poll result revealed that a significant proportion of Nigerians know what climate change means as stated by 68 percent of the respondents who described the phenomenon as a change in weather patterns or conditions. This shows that there is an increased awareness on the topic as Statista, a global data and business intelligence platform had reported in January 2023, that as of 2020, more than six Nigerians out of 10 never heard about climate change[3].
More so, nearly all the respondents (98 percent) believe that Climate Change is real with 94 percent affirming that Nigeria is currently experiencing it. This assertion cuts across gender, geographical locations, and age groups. When asked about the factors responsible for climate change, a larger proportion of Nigerians (22 percent) mentioned deforestation. According to the United Nations, Nigeria has the highest rate of deforestation in the world, losing 3.7 percent of its forest every year[4]. Other causes identified are industrial activities (13 percent), bush burning (10 percent), and natural occurrence (10 percent) amongst other causes.
Subsequently, the study sought to know how annual temperature and precipitation patterns have been in the past five years in various regions. Almost two-thirds of respondents (63 percent) reported that the annual temperature in their area has gotten warmer with the North-East (84 percent) and North-West regions (81 percent) having the highest proportion of respondents who made this claim. Contrary, slightly above 1 in 4 respondents (27 percent) reported that the temperature in their area has gotten colder while 1 in 10 respondents (10 percent) revealed that it has remained the same.
Similarly, results regarding annual precipitation (rainfall) patterns within the period in the review showed a decrease in a very steady pattern as reported by 38 percent of Nigerians surveyed. While 23 percent recounted an increase in a very steady pattern, 20 percent claimed annual rainfall has varied from year to year more than it has in the past. Also, 19 percent narrated that it varied from year to year as it always has in their local areas.
Unfortunately, 32 percent reported that they have experienced a form of flooding which affected their properties in the last 5 years with the North-East (44 percent) and North-West regions (35 percent) having the highest number of respondents who made this claim.
When asked if adverse changes in the environment would affect their livelihoods, the survey result showed that slightly more than 52 percent of the respondents answered in the affirmative. Of this proportion, 25 percent revealed that flooding destroys farms/lives and properties while 21 percent said it causes negative farm produce and productivity amongst other effects stated.
Furthermore, the study revealed that 61 percent are involved in farming and of this proportion, 85 percent mentioned that they grow crops. Regrettably, more than 8 in 10 respondents (84 percent) who grow crops affirmed that climate change has had an impact on their crop yield. While 89 percent stated it has impacted agriculture, 70 percent stated that it has harmed their communities.
Unfortunately, 49 percent disclosed that they or someone they know have had to relocate from their residence or farm because of climate change-related issues. The North-East region accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who have been displaced in this regard. This result corroborates the report of Abiola Durodola, an Urban Planner, Flood Risk Analyst and Team Lead of Advo KC Foundation that in 2021, Jigawa, Bauchi and Adamawa states in the North-West and North-East regions of Nigeria were inundated by flood which evicted over 380 households and left more than 20 people dead[5]. He added that the situation has further deteriorated with the wave of displacement and humanitarian crisis in the crisis-ridden North-East Nigeria as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) says there is an urgent need for humanitarian assistance as over 15,000 internally displaced persons now scramble for shelter after their camps were destroyed by flooding [6].
Additionally, the survey gauged the perception of Nigerians on global warming and the result shows that 51 percent of the respondents have no idea what global warming is. However, 31 percent of the respondents described the occurrence as a change in weather conditions amongst other perceptions. More than half of respondents (56 percent) linked the cause of global warming to industrial pollution and deforestation. This is followed by natural causes (26 percent) and burning of fossils (18 percent). Nonetheless, 75 percent revealed that they are concerned about global warming. Sadly, 46 percent of Nigerians disclosed that they do not have confidence in the government’s ability to address the challenges of climate change in their area.
Finally, supporting a call to action to combat climate change and global warming, respondents were asked: what can be done to curb the effects of climate change and global warming. The survey findings showed that planting trees (19 percent), enactment of legislation to regulate pollution (13 percent), and stopping unregulated burning of bushes and fuels (9 percent) were the top-mentioned measures. The theme for Climate Change 2024 is "Our Land, Our Future”. We are #GenerationRestoration," emphasizes the importance of restoring land, combating desertification, and enhancing resilience to drought[7]. Currently, up to 40% of the world's land is degraded, impacting around 3.2 billion people globally due to desertification[8].
Background and Objectives
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns or changes in atmospheric temperature of the earth[9]. It is also a long-term shift in global or regional climate patterns over a long time – including precipitation, temperature, and wind patterns[10]. Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. A region’s weather patterns, usually tracked for at least 30 years, are considered its climate[11].
Climate change is a topic that has sparked discussions around the world with humans facing extinction if actions are not taken.[12] Thus, it is a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet[13]. According to the World Health Organization, between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress[14].
The potential for climate change to bring about damaging and irrecoverable effects on infrastructure, food production, and water supplies, in addition to precipitating natural resource conflicts makes it a critical challenge that must be responded to by any economy seeking sustainable growth in the years leading up to 2020.” - Nigeria Vision 20:2020[15].
At an accelerated rate, climate change is impacting communities in every country, across every continent. From rising sea levels and extreme weather events to energy, food and water insecurity – the consequences are clear, and they are tragic [16]. As Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria’s wide range of livelihoods, agricultural practices, and commodities are threatened by climate change[17]. Rising sea levels increase vulnerability to flooding and waterborne disease. Additionally, drought and rising temperatures hinder agricultural production and fishing, reducing food security and negatively impacting health and nutrition[18] .
The 2022 Afrobarometer Climate Change Country Scorecard for Nigeria show that 66 percent of Nigerians who are aware of climate change opine that climate change is making life worse with 23 percent insisting that floods have been more severe over the past decade. Another 25 percent also say droughts have been more severe over the past decade.[19] This shows the urgent need to respond to the challenges of climate change comprehensively and systematically given the vulnerability factors. Though a global challenge, climate change requires local solutions hence the Government of Nigeria acknowledges the importance of developing a national response to climate change and is taking steps to build a governance structure to manage the issue.[20] To ensure an aggressive and widely supported strategy and action plan, a national response to the significant and multi-faceted impacts of climate change was put in place. Actions towards climate change will shape how people adapt to it and how nature responds, hence adaptation is critical to securing a livable future.
Consequently, the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN) was developed. The NASPA-CCN seeks to minimize risks, improve local and national adaptive capacity and resilience, leverage new opportunities, and facilitate collaboration with the global community, all to reduce Nigeria’s vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change.[21]
The International Day of Climate Action, celebrated annually on October 24th, raises awareness about the urgent need to address issues of climate change. It is a worldwide movement where people come together to highlight the importance of environment conservation, advocate policies, and encourage sustainability[22]. There is no gain saying the fact that man depends on his environment for existence and sustenance such that man’s life is shaped by his environment, and this underscores the need for the protection of the environment from all forms of degradation, especially those brought about by the activities of man[23].
Goal 13 of the SDG goals calls for urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. It is intrinsically linked to all 16 of the other Goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. To address climate change, countries adopted the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius[24]. The UN continues to encourage all stakeholders to act toward reducing the impacts of climate change. [25] Hence the UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29) which will be held in November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan with the theme "Our Land, Our Future. We are #GenerationRestoration," emphasizes the importance of restoring land, combating desertification, and enhancing resilience to drought. [26]
Against this background, NOIPolls gauged the opinions of Nigerians regarding climate change and hereby presents its findings.
Survey Methodology
The survey was conducted through telephone interviews in the week of 15th July 2024. A proportionate random nationwide selected sample of 1,000 phone-owning Nigerians, 18 years and above, were interviewed across the six geopolitical zones in the country. This sample size provides a 95% confidence interval that the results obtained are within a range of plus or minus 4.65% of the opinions of the population. The interviews were conducted in English, Pidgin, Hausa, Igbo, or Yoruba. The use of several Nigerian languages reduces the likelihood of a non-response bias.
Demographic Distribution
A total of 1,041 respondents were randomly selected for this survey. The survey was administered over the telephone in five languages, using a well-structured questionnaire. The demographic distribution of the respondents was analyzed by the following groups: gender, age group, geo-political zones, and occupation as illustrated in Figure 1 below.
Gender: The proportion of male and female respondents was almost equal with 51 percent and 49 percent respectively.
Age Group: The age group with the highest frequency in the survey was 18-35 (68 percent) and the lowest age group represented was 61+ (2 percent).
Geo-Political Zone
All geo-political zones were adequately represented in the survey, the highest represented zone is the North-West zone (24 percent) and the lowest is the South-East zone (12 percent).
Occupation: The highest proportion of respondents surveyed were self-employed traders (29 percent); followed by farmer/fishing/Agric workers (18 percent) and government workers/ Civil servants (17 percent). The lowest-represented occupations in the survey were religious leader/missionary, Youth Corp members and others with 1 percent each.
Survey Results
Respondents to the poll were asked twenty specific questions. This section of the report presents findings from each question.
Perception of Nigerians about Climate Change
The first question gauged the perception of Nigerians nationwide about their understanding of climate change and the result revealed that most Nigerians (68 percent) nationwide believe it is a change in weather patterns or conditions.
Perception of Climate Change Existence
Nearly all respondents (98 percent) believe that climate change is real. This response cuts across gender, geographical locations, and age groups. However, just a handful of Nigerians (2 percent) stated otherwise.
Perception of Whether Nigeria is Experiencing Climate Change
More than 9 in 10 Nigerians (94 percent) reported that Nigeria is currently experiencing climate change. This response cuts across gender, geographical locations, and age groups with a minimum representation of 92 percent.
Perception of Major Causes of Climate Change
Interestingly, survey results showed that 24 percent of Nigerians stated that they do not know the causes of climate change. On the flip side, deforestation (22 percent), industrial activities (13 percent), bush burning (10 percent), and natural occurrence (10 percent) were the top four causes mentioned by respondents amongst others.
Perception of Annual Temperature Pattern
When asked if the annual temperature in their area has gone warmer, colder, or stayed about the same over five years, almost two–thirds of respondents (63 percent) surveyed reported that it is warmer with the North-East (84 percent) and North-West regions (81 percent) having more respondents who reported this.
Additionally, 27 percent of the respondents revealed that it is colder, while 10 percent disclosed that it has stayed the same.
Annual Precipitation (Rainfall) Pattern
The survey findings showed that 38 percent reported that the annual precipitation (rainfall) pattern in their local area over five years has decreased in a very steady pattern. On the other hand, 23 percent reported an increase in a steady pattern within the period in review. The South-South (41 percent) and South-West regions (38 percent) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who reported an increase in rainfall.
Similarly, 20 percent reported that it has varied from year to year more than it has in the past, and 19 percent reported that the annual rainfall varied from year to year as it always has in their local areas.
Experience on Flooding
Subsequently, the study further revealed that 32 percent of the respondents stated that they have experienced a form of flooding that affected their properties in the last five years and the North-East accounted for the higher number of respondents (44 percent) who mentioned this.
Impact of Adverse Changes in the environment on livelihoods
Interestingly, survey results showed that 52 percent of the respondents answered in the affirmative when asked if adverse changes in the environment would affect their livelihoods. This cuts across genders, geographical locations and age groups.
Reasons Given on How Adverse Changes in the Environment Effects Livelihoods
52 percent of those who disclosed that adverse changes in the environment affected their livelihoods were further probed. The Survey result showed that 25 percent of this proportion revealed that flooding destroys their farms and properties. Other reasons mentioned are negative farm produce and productivity (21 percent), heavy rainfall and flooding restricting movement (13 percent), and it leads to illness/other health challenges (13 percent) etc.
Proportion of Nigerians Involved in Farming
The survey result showed that slightly above 61 percent of the respondents affirmed that they either grow crops or raise livestock or poultry in their present location/village. Perception of the age group showed that those aged between 36 – 60 years accounted for the largest proportion (65 percent) of Nigerians who are involved in farming.
Proportion of Farmers Who Grow Crops
Of the proportion (61 percent) who are involved in farming, the majority (85 percent) affirmed that they grow crops. These responses cut across all demographics however,15 percent stated otherwise.
Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields
Unfortunately, 84 percent of the respondents stated that climate change has had an impact on their crop yield when asked if they think climate change has affected their crop yields. This assertion cuts across all regions, gender and age groups.
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture.
Similarly, an overwhelming majority (89 percent) of the respondents affirmed that climate change has had an impact on agriculture generally. This is not far-fetched given that Nigeria is currently experiencing a food shortage.
Impact of Climate Change on Communities
The survey result revealed that 70 percent of the respondents reported that changes in the climate have affected the community they live in negatively. This response cuts across geographical locations, genders, and age groups.
Relocated Due to Climate Change
Interestingly, 49 percent of the respondents disclosed that they or someone they know have had to relocate from their residence or farm because of climate change-related issues. The North-East zone (64 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of respondents.
Perception of Global Warming
Furthermore, the survey sought to know the perception of Nigerians about global warming. The result showed that 51 percent of the respondents do not know what global warming is. About 3 in 10 Nigerians (32 percent) stated that it means a change in weather conditions. Other perceptions about the concept are an increase in temperature/heat waves (10 Percent), Ozone layer depletion (2 percent), and human activities affecting the atmosphere (2 percent) amongst others.
Perception of Factors That Contribute to Global Warming
When respondents were asked: What factors do you think contribute to global warming? The findings showed that industrial pollution (28 percent), deforestation (28 percent) and natural causes were the top three reasons mentioned.
Concern About Global Warming
Interestingly, more than 7 in 10 Nigerians (75 percent) revealed that they are concerned about global warming and the North-Central had the higher number of respondents who stated this.
Confidence in Government’s Ability to Address Climate Change Challenges
Subsequently, the survey measured the level of confidence of Nigerians in the government’s ability to address climate change-related challenges in their areas. The survey result showed that 41 percent of Nigerians are confident that the government can tackle the challenges whereas, 46 percent disclosed that they have no confidence in the government. However, 13 percent maintained a neutral stance.
Suggestions on Curbing Climate Change and Global Warming
With regards to the recommendation, planting of trees (19 percent), enactment of legislation to regulate pollution (13 percent) and stopping unregulated burning of bushes and fuels (9 percent) were the top three mentioned measures. However, 24 percent of the respondents do not have any suggestions on the topic.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the survey result has shown that most Nigerians are aware of the meaning of climate change as indicated by 68 percent of respondents surveyed. The vast majority (94 percent) also believe that the country is currently experiencing climate change, as 1 out of 2 respondents (52 percent) affirmed that adverse changes in their environment have impacted negatively on their livelihoods, communities (70 percent), crop yield (84 percent), and agriculture as a whole (89 percent).
However, a greater proportion of Nigerians (46 percent) have no confidence in the ability of the government to address challenges associated with climate change in their area. As a call to action, respondents have offered some suggestions to curb the effects of climate change and global warming amongst which include the planting of trees (19 percent), enactment of legislation to regulate pollution (13 percent), stop unregulated bush burning (9 percent) amongst others.
Therefore, the government and stakeholders must synergize and ensure that they leverage new technologies, strategies, and approaches that are being employed in advanced countries. These are necessary stages to ensure that the changing climate does not worsen the multidimensional pressure already on the food and environmental systems. Finally, if the government's strategies and plans towards human and economic development in Nigeria are to achieve needed results, they must include appropriate measures for climate change impacts.
[1] What Is Climate Change? - NASA Science
[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1269701/knowledge-of-climate-change-topic-in-nigeria-by-area/#:~:text=Knowledge%20of%20climate%20change%20topic%20in%20Nigeria%202020%2C%20by%20area&text=As%20of%202020%2C%20more%20than,have%20heard%20about%20this%20topic.
[5] https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/nigerias-cities-are-at-severe-risk-from-climate-change-time-to-build-resilience-and-fast/
[6] https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/nigerias-cities-are-at-severe-risk-from-climate-change-time-to-build-resilience-and-fast/
[7]https://www.google.com/search?q=when+is+world+climate+day&oq=when+is+world+climate+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgAEAAYgAQyBwgAEAAYgAQyBggBEEUYOTIICAIQABgWGB4yCAgDEAAYFhgeMggIBBAAGBYYHjIICAUQABgWGB4yCAgGEAAYFhgeMggIBxAAGBYYHjIICAgQABgWGB4yCAgJEAAYFhge0gEKMTQ2MDNqMGoxNagCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
[8]https://www.google.com/search?q=when+is+world+climate+day&oq=when+is+world+climate+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgAEAAYgAQyBwgAEAAYgAQyBggBEEUYOTIICAIQABgWGB4yCAgDEAAYFhgeMggIBBAAGBYYHjIICAUQABgWGB4yCAgGEAAYFhgeMggIBxAAGBYYHjIICAgQABgWGB4yCAgJEAAYFhge0gEKMTQ2MDNqMGoxNagCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
[13] Climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet. Taking action now can secure our future — IPCC
[19] NigeriaCC_.png (3001×2064) (afrobarometer.org)
[22]https://www.google.com/search?q=what+day+does+the+UN+commemorate+climate+change+day&oq=what+day+does+the+UN+commemorate+climate+change+day&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIKCAEQABiABBiiBDIKCAIQABiABBiiBDIKCAMQABiABBiiBNIBCjI2NTIwajBqMTWoAgiwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
[24] https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/climate- action/#:~:text=Goal%2013%20calls%20for%20urgent,well%20below%202%20degrees%20Celsius.
[25] https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/climate- action/#:~:text=Goal%2013%20calls%20for%20urgent,well%20below%202%20degrees%20Celsius
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