Abuja, Nigeria. June 4th, 2015– Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls for the month of May 2015 revealed that 42 percent of Nigerians surveyed approved of President Jonathan’s job performance. This rating represents the last rating for Goodluck Jonathan as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and also the lowest (the same as April 2013) since NOIPolls started its monthly approval rating in January 2013. It also shows a further 7-points decline revealing a constant drop in his performance rating since February 2015. The general decline in the approval rating of the president is seen across 5 geo-political zones with the North-West zone accounting for the greatest decline by 18-points when compared to April 2015. This substantial decline in the President’s approval rating could be as result of the high expectations of Nigerians of the incoming government administration and the changes that will accompany it. This decline may also have been as a result of the recorded fuel scarcity and nationwide strike by major petroleum marketers which peaked in the month of May 2015.
Further findings disclosed that Nigerians recognize the performance of the President in Health, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy; which all received an average rating (3) in the month of May 2015. Conversely, his performance in Job Creation, Power, Economy and Security was given a rating of 1 which signifies a poor performance.
An evaluation of the state of power in Nigeria revealed that power supply to Nigerian households worsened over the past one month as reported by 65 percent of respondents that were surveyed. This represents the worst power rating since NOIPolls commenced its power rating in January 2013; even as the Ministry of power confirmed that Nigeria’s power generation hit an “all-time low”; as power generation crashes to 1,327MW in May 2015.[1] The Ministry of Power also reported that most key power plants in the country were all shut down at some point within this period as a result of pipeline vandalism; while also pointing out the additional effect of the strike action by The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, PENGASSAN, and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers, NUPENG, branch of the Nigerian Petroleum Development Corporation, NPDC, within the period in view.[2] In addition, only 17 percent of the respondents acknowledged an improvement in power supply in May 2015.These are some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Poll conducted in the week of May 25th 2015.
These results represent the fifth in the 2015 monthly series of governance polls (and the last approval rating of President Goodluck Jonathan) conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regardingthe approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and thestate of power supply in the country.
Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to assess the opinion of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month?The outcome revealed that a total of 42 percent of Nigerians surveyed approved of President Jonathan’s job performance in May 2015. On the other hand, a total of 41 percent of the respondents disapproved of his job performance in May 2015, whereas 17 percent of the respondents were neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved of the president’s job performance.
An assessment of the President’s job performance by geo-political zone revealed that the South-East zone (70 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance and this mostly impacted the overall rating of President Jonathan. The North-West zone (58 percent) accounted for the greater fraction of respondents who disapproved of the president’s job performance. In addition, the North-East zone accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who were neutral with 22 percent.
A three-month trend evaluation (March to May 2015) of the President’s performance by geo-political zone was characterized by continuous decline in the approval rating of the president across 5 geo-political zones hence, an overall decline in his overall approval rating within this period. Also, the North-West zone had the highest decline by 18-points in the approval rating of the President when compared to March 2015. This substantial decline in the President’s approval rating could be as result of the high expectation of Nigerians of the new government and the changes that will accompany it. This decline may also have been as a result of the fuel scarcity and strike by major petroleum marketers that peaked in the month of May 2015.
Further monthly trend evaluation of the President’s approval rating depicts a significant 7-points decline when compared to April 2015. The President’s rating has illustrated a continuous decrease since February 2015 and it is also observed that the President’s rating from this current poll is 2-points below that of May 2013. The average performance rating for President Goodluck Jonathan over a 29 months period is recorded at 53.3 percent and this current rating is 11.3-points below the average.
To gauge the performance of the president on pertinent elements of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of President Jonathan in the following areas? (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture & Food Security (7) Transportation (8) Foreign Policy & Diplomacy and (9) Security. The result shows that Nigerians recognize the performance of the President in Health, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy as it was rated average (3) in the month of May 2015. On the contrary, his performance in Job Creation, Power, Economy and Security was given a rating of 1 which signifies a poor performance.
Trend analysis revealed that the President’s performance rating on Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy has maintained an average ranking (3) since January 2014. However, the President’s performance rating on Job Creation, Power and Security has remained very poor (1) since January 2015.
Finally, to find out the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month, respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month? Power supply to Nigerian households worsened over the past one month as reported by 65 percent of respondents surveyed, thereby representing the worst power rating since NOIPolls commenced its power rating in January 2013. On the contrary, only 17 percent of respondents acknowledged experiencing an improvement in power supply while 18 percent stated that there is no difference at all in power supply in May 2015.
An assessment of the state of power by geo-political zone revealed that the South-East zone (29 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who experienced improved power supply, while the South-South zone (34 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians who reported there was no difference at all. The North-West zone (73 percent) accounted for the greater share of respondents who claimed that power supply worsened within the last one month.
Monthly trend analysis shows a further decline of 3-points in power supply in May 2015. This result also represents a huge 25-points decline when compared to May 2014. This current result is the lowest power rating over 29 months. The average power rating over a 29 months period is recorded at 35.9 percent and this current rating is 18.9-points below the average.
In conclusion, about 4 in 10 (42 percent) Nigerians surveyed approved of the President’s performance, 41 percent disapproved of his performance, while 17 percent of the respondents remained neutral, as they neither approved nor disapproved of his performance. Furthermore, Nigerians acknowledged the performance of the President in Health, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy with an average (3) rating in the month of May 2015. However, his performance in Job Creation, Power, Economy and Security was given a rating of 1, signifying a poor performance. Finally, power supply to Nigerian households worsened over the past one month as described by 65 percent of adult Nigerians surveyed. This represents the worst power rating recorded by NOIPolls since commencing power supply rating in January 2013.
Survey Methods
The opinion poll was conducted in the week of May 25th 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA). We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com
Disclaimer
This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.
NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.
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[1] http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/183687-nigerias-energy-crisis-worsens-only-5-of-23-power-plants-functional-nerc.html
[2] http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/pengassan-nupeng-on-strike-over-rights-to-oil-leases/
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