Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 958 | Raphael Mbaegbu and Chukwudebe Nwanze
Summary
The removal of Nigeria’s fuel subsidy has reshaped the country’s economic landscape, driving up not only fuel prices but the overall costs of living. Fuel subsidies, which provided government financial assistance to keep fuel prices below prevailing market rates, were first introduced in the 1970s in response to the 1973 oil-price shock (Chika, 2023).
In 2012, the government attempted to remove the subsidy, a move that sparked nationwide protests. Public outcry and prolonged demonstrations, which nearly escalated into violent unrest, led the government to reinstate the subsidy. Since then, successive administrations have failed to remove the subsidy due to concerns about public opposition and potential unrest.
In May 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the removal of Nigeria’s fuel subsidy (Premium Times, 2023). The decision, which came unexpectedly, was met with widespread concern about its economic implications. The immediate aftermath saw a sharp increase in the prices of goods and services across the country. Fuel prices surged from N185 per liter in 2023 to N1,025 per liter in 2024, while the currency exchange rate weakened from 460 naira to 1,700 naira per U.S. dollar (Punch, 2024).
The combined effects of the fuel-subsidy removal and the unification of the naira’s exchange rate have exacerbated the cost of living for many Nigerians. The rising cost of goods and services has significantly weakened purchasing power, a particular problem for low-income households. World Bank (2024) projections estimated that by the end of 2024, about four in 10 Nigerians would be living below the international poverty line.
Inflation reached record levels in June 2024, driven primarily by escalating food and fuel prices and foreign exchange volatility (National Bureau of Statistics, 2024). As inflationary pressures mount, economic hardship deepens, triggering ripple effects throughout society (Jarmajo, 2024). As Nigeria navigates these economic challenges, the long-term effects of subsidy removal remain a focal point of public discourse and policy debate.
Afrobarometer survey findings show that Nigerians' already-grim assessments of the country’s overall direction, its economic situation, and their personal living conditions have continued to worsen. The proportion of citizens experiencing moderate or high levels of lived poverty remains overwhelming.
Nigerians’ ratings of their government’s performance on key economic issues are almost unanimously negative. Economic issues dominate citizens’ top priorities for government action, including the increasing cost of living, poverty, unemployment, and management of the economy.
Afrobarometer surveys
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life. Nine survey rounds in up to 42 countries have been completed since 1999. Round 10 surveys were launched in January 2024. Afrobarometer’s national partners conduct face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice.
The Afrobarometer team in Nigeria, led by NOIPolls, interviewed a nationally representative, random, stratified probability sample of 1,600 adult Nigerians in June-July 2024. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Previous standard surveys were conducted in Nigeria in 2000, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2022.
Key findings
▪ More than nine out of 10 Nigerians (93%) say the country is going in “the wrong direction.” Only 6% see things going in the right direction, a 31-percentage-point drop since 2017.
▪ Nearly nine in 10 citizens (88%) say the country’s economic condition is “fairly bad” or “very bad,” up 30 percentage points since 2020.
o And three-fourths (74%) report poor personal living conditions.
▪ More than nine in 10 Nigerians (95%) say they or someone in their household went without a cash income at least once during the previous year. Most also report shortages of food (82%), medical care (82%), water (74%), and cooking fuel (79%).
o The share of Nigerians experiencing moderate or high levels of lived poverty has increased by 41 percentage points since 2017 (from 38% vs. 79%).
▪ The increasing cost of living is the most frequently cited problem that Nigerians want the government to address. The economic issues of poverty, unemployment, and management of the economy also make the top five, along with crime/security.
▪ Ratings of the government’s economic performance are overwhelmingly negative. Fewer than one in 10 Nigerians rate the government positively on improving living standards of the poor (8%), managing the economy (7%), creating jobs (6%), narrowing gaps between rich and poor (5%), and keeping prices stable (3%).
▪ A large majority (85%) of respondents disapprove of the government’s decision to remove the government’s fuel subsidy. Only 12% approve of the removal.
▪ Almost six in 10 (58%) say the government should reinstate the fuel subsidy even if this means reducing other important expenditures such as health or education. More than one-third (35%) disagree.
Direction of the country and state of the economy
An overwhelming proportion of Nigerians (93%) say the country is heading in “the wrong direction” (Figure 1). A mere 6% think the country is headed in “the right direction.” The share of Nigerians who consider the country to be on the wrong path has been increasing consistently since 2017.
The view that the country is heading in the wrong direction is consistent – at nine out of 10 respondents or more – across key demographic groups (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Overall direction of the country | Nigeria | 2012-2024
Respondents were asked: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction?
Figure 2: Country going in the wrong direction | by demographic group | Nigeria | 2024
Respondents were asked: Would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction? (% who say “going in the wrong direction”)
National economy and personal living conditions
Large majorities of Nigerians offer negative assessments of economic conditions. Almost nine in 10 (88%) describe the country’s economic condition as “fairly bad” or “very bad,” up from 58% recorded in 2020 (Figure 3). About three-fourths (74%) say their personal living conditions are “fairly bad” or “very bad,” compared to 47% in 2020.
Figure 3: Negative assessments of the country’s economic condition and personal living conditions | Nigeria | 2012-2024
Respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe: The present economic condition of this country? Your own present living conditions? (% who say “fairly bad” or “very bad”)
Respondents’ negative assessments of economic conditions mirror widespread personal experience of deprivation when it comes to basic life necessities (Figure 4). Majorities say they or someone in their household went without enough food (82%), enough clean water (74%), and medical care (82%)[1] at least once during the previous year, including about one in four who say this happened “many times” or “always.”
More than nine in 10 (95%) report going without a cash income at least once during the year, while 79% say they experienced shortages of cooking fuel.
Calculating Lived Poverty Index[2] scores based on respondents’ reported shortages of basic necessities, we find that eight in 10 Nigerians experienced moderate (41%) or high (38%) levels of lived poverty during the preceding year (Figure 5). The share of Nigerians with moderate or high lived poverty has increased by 41 percentage points since 2017 (from 38% to 79%) (Figure 6).
Figure 4: Deprivation of basic necessities | Nigeria | 2024
Respondents were asked: Over the past year, how often, if ever, have you or anyone in your family gone without: Enough food to eat? Enough clean water for home use? Medicines or medical treatment? Enough fuel to cook your food? A cash income?
Figure 5: Levels of lived poverty | Nigeria | 2024
Lived poverty scores are calculated based on responses to the following questions: Over the past year, how often, if ever, have you or anyone in your family gone without: Enough food to eat? Enough clean water for home use? Medicines or medical treatment? Enough fuel to cook your food? A cash income?
Figure 6: Lived poverty trends | Nigeria | 2014-2024
Lived poverty scores are calculated based on responses to the following questions: Over the past year, how often, if ever, have you or anyone in your family gone without: Enough food to eat? Enough clean water for home use? Medicines or medical treatment? Enough fuel to cook your food? A cash income?
Most important problems facing Nigeria
Economic concerns dominate Nigerians’ priorities for government action (Figure 7). Four of the five most important problems that citizens want their government to address are economic issues: the increasing cost of living (33%), poverty (27%), unemployment (27%), and management of the economy (25%).
Figure 7: Most important problems | Nigeria | 2024
Respondents were asked: In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing this country that government should address? (Respondents could give up to three answers. The figure shows the percentage of respondents who cite each problem as one of up to three priorities.)
Government’s economic performance
In line with their appraisals of the country’s direction, Nigerians overwhelmingly disapprove of their government’s handling of the economy (Figure 8). More than nine in 10 citizens say the government is doing “fairly badly” or “very badly” on keeping prices stable (97%), narrowing gaps between rich and poor (95%), creating jobs (94%), managing the economy (93%), and improving the living standards of the poor (92%).
Figure 8: Evaluation of government’s economic performance | Nigeria | 2024
Respondents were asked: How well or badly would you say the current government is handling the following matters, or haven’t you heard enough to say?
Views on the fuel-subsidy removal
After announcing the end of Nigeria’s fuel subsidy in May 2023, the president emphasised that the decision was not intended to burden citizens but to protect the country from economic collapse (Guardian, 2024). Despite the explanation, most Nigerians (85%) disapprove of removing the subsidy, including 52% who “strongly disapprove.” Only 12% say they approve (Figure 9).
Here, too, there is very little disagreement among key demographic groups: All disapprove of the government’s removal of the fuel subsidy by more than eight in 10 (Figure 10).
Figure 9: Views on government decision to remove fuel subsidy| Nigeria| 2024
Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the government’s decision to remove fuel subsidies, or haven’t you heard enough to say?
Figure 10: Disapproval of government decision to remove fuel subsidy | by demographic group | Nigeria | 2024
Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the government’s decision to remove fuel subsidies or haven’t you heard enough to say? (% who “disapprove and “strongly disapprove”)
Should fuel subsidy be reinstated?
After the fuel subsidy was removed, Nigerians saw a record increase in the pump price of petrol and food-supply challenges across the country. Almost six in 10 citizens (58%) say the government should reinstate the fuel subsidy, even if this means reducing expenditures on other important sectors such as health or education. But more than one-third (35%) disagree (Figure 11).
Figure 11: Should the government reinstate the fuel subsidy? | Nigeria | 2024
Respondents were asked: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The Nigerian government should reinstate fuel subsidies even if this means reducing other important expenditures such as health or education?
Rural residents (62%) are more likely than urban dwellers (52%) to support reinstating the fuel subsidy, and Northerners (63%) favour reinstatement more than Southerners (52%) (Figure 12). Support is also higher among youth aged 18-35 (61%), those with primary education or less (60%-61%), and economically well-off citizens (60%).
Figure 12: Should the government reinstate the fuel subsidy? | by demographic group | Nigeria | 2024
Respondents were asked: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The Nigerian government should reinstate fuel subsidies even if this means reducing other important expenditures such as health or education?
People’s views on whether to reinstate the fuel subsidy do not seem to depend on whether they think the country is on the right path or the wrong path: Regardless of their thoughts about Nigeria’s overall direction, just short of six in 10 favour reinstatement (Figure 13).
But views on the fuel subsidy do vary by respondents’ assessments of the economy and their own living conditions (Figure 14). Those who think the country’s economic condition is bad are more likely to call for reinstating the fuel subsidy than those who see the economy as good (59% vs. 46%). Similarly, respondents who are unhappy with their personal living conditions endorse reinstating the fuel subsidy more strongly than those who are satisfied with their living conditions (57% vs. 51%).
Figure 13: Views on reinstating fuel subsidy | by assessment of the country’s direction | Nigeria | 2024
Respondents were asked: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The Nigerian government should reinstate fuel subsidies even if this means reducing other important expenditures such as health or education?
Figure 14: Views on reinstating fuel subsidy | by assessment of economic and living conditions | Nigeria | 2024
Respondents were asked: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The Nigerian government should reinstate fuel subsidies even if this means reducing other important expenditures such as health or education?
Conclusion
Most Nigerians are dissatisfied with the country’s direction and cite increasingly harsh economic conditions. Large majorities rate both the national economy and their personal living conditions negatively. Furthermore, lived poverty has been on the rise since 2017, signaling deepening hardship, and most citizens disapprove of the government’s handling of economic issues.
Most Nigerians also disapprove of the government’s removal of the fuel subsidy, with nearly two-thirds calling for its reinstatement – even at the expense of funding for health and education.
References
Chika, C. (2023). Much ado about the politics of fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria. Afrocritik. 1 June.
Guardian. (2024). Oil subsidy removal designed to prevent Nigeria’s collapse — Tinubu. 1 December.
Jarmajo, M. (2024). Nigeria and crisis of economic hardship. ThisDay. August.
Mattes, R., & Lekalake, R. (2025). Decade of destitution? Severe lived poverty is surging in many African countries. Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 943.
National Bureau of Statistics. (2024). CPI and inflation report June 2024.
Premium Times. (2023). Fuel subsidy is gone – Tinubu declares. 29 May.
Punch. (2024). Tinubu must mitigate hardships arising from petrol price hikes. 4 November.
World Bank. (2024). Poverty & equity brief. Nigeria.
Raphael Mbaegbu is the head of social research and Afrobarometer project manager for NOIPolls, the Afrobarometer national partner in Nigeria. Email: rmbaegbu@noi-polls.com.
Chukwudebe Nwanze is a senior research associate at NOIPolls. Email: dnwanze@noi-polls.com.
Afrobarometer, a nonprofit corporation with headquarters in Ghana, is a pan-African, non-partisan research network. Regional coordination of national partners in about 35 countries is provided by the Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana), the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, and the Institute for Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi in Kenya. Michigan State University, the University of Cape Town, and the University of Malawi provide technical support to the network.
Financial support for Afrobarometer is provided by Sweden via the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) via the U.S. Institute of Peace, the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation via the World Bank Think Africa Project, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, the Open Society Foundations - Africa, Luminate, the Ford Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Mastercard Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the European Union Commission, the World Bank Group, the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Uganda, the Embassy of Sweden in Zimbabwe, and GIZ.
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[1] Due to rounding, percentages for combined categories reported in the text may differ slightly from the sum of sub-categories shown in figures (e.g. for medical care, 26% “many times” or “always, 31% “several times,” and 24% “just once or twice” sum to 82%).
[2] Afrobarometer’s Lived Poverty Index (LPI) measures respondents’ levels of material deprivation by asking how often they or their families went without basic necessities (enough food, enough water, medical care, enough cooking fuel, and a cash income) during the preceding year. For more on lived poverty, see Mattes and Lekalake (2025).
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