Abuja, Nigeria. November 4th, 2014 – Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls for the month of October 2014 revealed that a total of 60% of Adult Nigerians approved of the President’s performance over the past one month; indicating a substantial 14-points decline in the President’s approval rating from September 2014 where it hit its peak at 74%. In line with this, a general decline was experienced in the approval rating of the President across all geo-political zones with the greatest decline seen in the North- East (28-points) and the North-West (26-points) zones. This substantial decline in the rating of the President especially in the Northern regions may have been driven by the dashed hopes of Nigerians from failed achievements in pertinent security actions which would have been major breakthroughs in the area of Security; for instance the failure of the ‘cease fire’ deal between the Government and‘Boko Haram’ insurgents, as well as failure in the release of the ‘Chibok school girls’ after reassurance of their possible release in October.[1]
Still in the bid to assess the President’s performance, findings revealed that Nigerians perceived the performance of the President in key elements of his transformation agenda including, ‘Job Creation’, ‘Power’ ‘Economy’, ‘Health’, ‘Education’, ‘Agriculture & Food Security’, ‘Transportation’ and ‘Foreign Policy & Diplomacy’ as average (3). However, his performance on ‘Security’ was rated as very poor, implying that Nigerians are not satisfied with his achievement on this key area of his transformation agenda. In addition, an assessment of the current state of power revealed a worsened state in power supply to Nigerian households as reported by (47%) of the respondents with a higher proportion from the North-Central zone(58%). This poor state of power supply experienced by households across the nation was generally due to the drop in generated power by 1,000 megawatts in October 2014. Finally, this setback in power supply also contributed to the downward direction of the President’s approval rating in October. These were some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Poll conducted in week of October 27th 2014.
These results represent the tenth in the 2014 monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding the approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and the state of power supply in the country.
Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to assess the views of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month? Responses revealed that a total of 60% of the respondents approved of the President’s performance, 27% disapproved of his performance, while 13% of the respondents remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved.
An analysis of the President’s performance by geo-political zone reveals that the South-Eastzone (88%: 28%+60%) has the highest proportion of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance and this rating generally impacted on the overall rating of the President. The North-West zone accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who disapproved of the president’s job performance (47%: 36%+11%).
A three-month trend analysis (August to October 2014) of the President’s job approval rating by geo-political zone highlights a general decline in the approval rating of the president across all geo-political zones. In line with this, the greatest decline in the President’s approval rating was seen in the North-East (28-points) and the North-West (26-points) zones. This substantial decline in the President’s approval rating especially in the Northern regions may have been as a result of the diminished hopes of Nigerians due to failed achievements in pertinent security actions; such as the ‘cease fire’ deal between the Government and ‘Boko Haram’ insurgents, as well as failure in the release of the ‘Chibok school girls’ after reassurance of their possible release in October.[2] This decline may also have been as a result of the obvious worsened state of power experienced all over the nation over the past one month as shown in a subsequent chart.
Further monthly trend assessment of the President’s approval rating reveals a substantial 14-points decline in the President’s approval rating in October from September 2014 where the approval rating of the President was recorded at 74%. Furthermore, the current rating (60%) of the President was almost similar with ratings in the previous months; such as in August (61%)and July (62%) before the high increase recorded in September 2014 (74%) due to some major achievements especially in health, as seen in the NOIPolls Governance Result Release for September 2014.[3]
To see approval ratings over 22 months, please click here
With the aim of measuring the performance of the President on pertinent elements of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of the President Jonathan in the following areas? (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture & Food Security (7) Transportation (8) Foreign Policy & Diplomacy and (9) Security. Nigerians perceived the performance of the President in ‘Job creation’, ‘Power’, ‘Economy’, ‘Health’, ‘Education’, ‘Agriculture & Food Security’, ‘Transportation’ and ‘Foreign Policy & Diplomacy’ as average (3). However, his performance on ‘Security’ was rated as very poor thus implying that Nigerians are not satisfied with his achievement on this key area of his transformation agenda.
Monthly trend analysis reveals that the President’s performance rating on ‘Job Creation’ ‘Power’ ‘Economy’, ‘Health’, ‘Education’, ‘Transportation’ and ‘Foreign Policy & Diplomacy’maintained an average rating from the previous month. However his performance rating in Agriculture & Food Security’, dropped from a good rating (4) in the previous month to an average rating in October, while his rating on security continued to maintain a very poor rating as in the last nine months.
Finally, with the aim of assessing the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month, respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month? Findings revealed a worsened state in power supply to Nigerian households as almost half (47%: 26%+21%) of the respondents reported a poor state of power supply to their household over the past month. A total of 36% (26%+10%) of Nigerians saw an improvement in power supply, while 17% of the respondents saw no difference in the state of power supply over the past month.
Analysis by geo-political zones revealed that a higher proportion of Nigerian households across all geo-political zones experienced a poor state in power supply over the past one month except for the South-West zone where an equal proportion of households experienced a poor state (39%) and improvement (39%) in power supply over the past one month. TheNorth-Central zone accounted for the highest proportion (58%) of respondents who experienced a poor state in power supply, while the North-West zone (42%) recorded the highest proportion of the respondents who saw improvements over the past month.
Further trend analysis revealed an obvious worsened state of power supply to Nigerian households in October from the previous month. This is evidenced by a significant 16-pointdecline in the proportion of Nigerians who experienced an improvement in power supply to their households in October (36%) from September 2014 where improvement was recorded at52%. This poor state of power supply experienced by households across the nation was generally due to the drop in generated power by 1,000 megawatts. This is evidenced by figures released by the Federal Ministry of Power where the country’s peak generation in October 2014 dropped from 3,513.5MW to 2,500MW, against a peak demand of 12,800MW.[4]
In conclusion, findings from this poll revealed that 60% of adult Nigerians approved of the President’s performance over the past month. These findings depict a 14-point decline in his approval rating in October from September 2014 where it was recorded at 74%. Based on the rating of key elements of his transformation agenda, the President had an average ranking in his performance in ‘Job Creation’, ‘Power’, ‘Economy’, ‘Health’, ‘Education’, ‘Agriculture & Food Security’, ‘Transportation’ and ‘Foreign Policy & Diplomacy’ as average (3). However, his performance on ‘Security’ was rated as very poor in October 2014. An assessment of the current state of power revealed that a worsened state of power was generally experienced across the nation in October; this is evidenced by a 16-point decline in the proportion of respondents who experienced an improvement in power supply in October (36%) from September 2014 (52%). Finally, the current security challenges, as well as the general poor state of power in October negatively impacted the approval rating of the President, with a resulting decline by 14-points.
Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of October 27th 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com
Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.
NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.
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