Abuja, Nigeria. July 2nd, 2013 – Governance poll results released by NOI Polls Limited for the month of June have revealed that slightly more than 4 in 10 Nigerians (44%) approve the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan for the month of June 2013. This rating has remained constant when compared to last month’s ratings. The results also indicate that 47% of Nigerians rate the performance of the current administration as average. These were the two key findings from the poll conducted in the week of June 24th 2013.
The results presented are the sixth in the monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOI Polls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding three crucial elements – the approval rating of the president, the performance of the current administration, and the situation of power supply in the country.
Averages over a six month period show the following statistics; an average of 47% of Nigerians approve of the president’s job performance over the six month period, however GEJ’s approval ratings have declined by 6 points over this period (Jan: 50%, Jun:44%). His approval ratings have been most affected in the months where power supply have been perceived as bad, showing a correlation between how Nigerians perceive his performance and their power supply. His ratings peaked in February at 54% when Nigeria won the African Cup of Nations and dipped at an all-time low to 42% in April, a month where 51% of Nigerians reported their power situation as bad.
Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first question sought to gauge the approval rating of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month: Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of the president in the past 1 month? Overall, a total of 44% of the respondents (37% + 7%) approve the performance of the president; while a total of 26% (23% +3%) disapprove of his performance.
The majority (37%) stated that they approve of the President’s performance, while 7% said they strongly approve, followed by 30% who were neutral saying they neither approved nor disapproved. Also, 23% of the respondents polled said they disapprove and 3% said they strongly disapproved. What is clearly interesting is the second largest group (30%) who are undecided about his performance and are sitting on the fence. This group is steadily increasing over the last 6 months with May reporting the highest (31%).
When results are analysed by geo-political zone, some important disparities emerge. The approval rating of the President is highest in the South-South zone (60% in total) and South-East zone (52% in total). It is lowest in the North-East zone (29% in total); the South-West and North-East zones also have the highest proportion of respondents that disapprove of the President’s job performance with 35% and 34% respectively. It is also pertinent to point out the North-East and North-West zones have the highest proportion (37% each) of Nigerians who are neutral and neither approve or disapprove of the Presidents job performance.
Averages over a six month period show the following statistics; an average of 47% of Nigerians approve of the president’s job performance over the six month period, however GEJ’s approval ratings have declined by 6 points over the six month period (Jan: 50%, Jun:44%). His approval ratings have been most affected in the months where power supply have been perceived as bad, showing a correlation between how Nigerians perceive his performance and their power supply. His ratings peaked in February at 54% when Nigeria won the African Cup of Nations and dipped at an all-time low to 42% in April, a month where 51% of Nigerians reported power as not improved.
An average of 25% is currently neutral and sitting on the fence, an interest group for early converting as the race to the 2015 elections start while an average of 28% disapprove of the President’s job performance over the six month period.
Please see figure below for six month trend for GEJ’s Job approval ratings.
The second question sought to gauge the opinions of Nigerians regarding the performance of the entire administration – the ministers at the federal level, and the governors and their respective cabinets at the state levels. Respondents were asked: How would you rate the performance of this current administration in the last month? In response, overall the majority (47%) said the administration has “performed averagely”, followed by 23% who are of the opinion that “they have performed poorly”. In addition, 19% said “they have performed well”, while 7% said “they have performed very poorly”, and 4% said “they have performed very well.
Once again, results analysed in more detail show some interesting highlights. The South-South zone has the highest proportion of respondents that think the current administration has performed well (34% in total). The North-East zone has the highest proportion of respondents that think the administration has performed poorly (36% in total).
Averages over a six month period show the following statistics; an average of 50% of Nigerians rate the administration average over the six month period, this has remained constant over this period (Jan: 52%, Jun:47%). An average of 22% rates them poorly whilst the remaining 28% is shared between performing well, very well and very poor.
An observation of all governance polls conducted show that the approval ratings for the administration (Executive cabinets, Ministers, Governors) do not vary largely from the President’s approval ratings (50% Vs 47%).
Please see figure below for the six month trend for the administration’s approval ratings.
Finally, the third question sought to establish the state of power supply in the country. Therefore, respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area where you live in the last 1 month? Current results show that the slight majority (26%) stated that their power supply “has improved a little” and this is closely followed by 25% who claim “it is very bad and has gone worse”. Furthermore, 22% of Nigerians said “it remains bad” while 21% stated that “there’s no difference at all”. A meagre 6% of the respondents were of the opinion that power supply “has improved very much”. Overall 47% perceive their power supply as bad, 32% perceive their supply as improved and 21% has seen no difference at all.
Looking across the geo-political zones, there are a few differences that are worth noting. The North-Central zone (41% in total) has the highest proportion of respondents that think that power supply has improved followed by the South-South zone (39% in total). The majority in the North-West zone (26%) claim that there has been no difference at all in their power supply. The North-East zone (57% in total) and South-West (56% in total) had the highest proportion of respondents that claim power supply remains bad in June and also that it is very bad and has gone worse.
A comparison with results from the poll conducted in May 2013 shows a considerable change in the power supply situation in Nigeria. In June, more people claimed their power supply was bad or had worsened; 44% in May compared to 47% in June. Also, the proportion of respondents whose power supply had improved slightly or very much decreased in June (32%) compared to 35% in May. The percentage of respondents who observed no difference in their power supply stayed the same from May to June.
Averages over a six month period show the following statistics; an average of 42% of Nigerians have not seen an improvement in their power supply over the six month period, 37% have seen an improvement whilst 21% have seen no difference at all in their power supply. An observation highlights a decline beginning in March and moving downwards to June with April peaking at 51%
Please see figure below for six month trend on power supply.
In conclusion, the results from this current poll have revealed that the majority of Nigerians approve of the job performance of President Goodluck Jonathan in the month of June 2013. His approval rating did not change from May to June 2013. Also in June, slightly less Nigerians think the current administration is performing well compared to May. Finally, More Nigerians have generally observed a worsened situation in power supply to their households in June compared to May 2013.
Please visit our NOI Polls Monthly Figures to see ratings according to Gender, Occupation and Age.
The opinion poll was conducted on June 26th to 28th 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,008 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOI Polls Limited is Nigeria’s leading opinion polling and research organisation, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com
This press release has been produced by NOI Polls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOI Polls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.
NOI Polls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOI Polls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOI Polls’ current findings and/or thinking.