Abuja, Nigeria. November 5, 2013 - Latest monthly governance poll result released by NOIPolls Limitedhas revealed that about 55% of Nigerians approve of the job performance of President Goodluck Jonathan in the month of October 2013. This current rating depicts a 6-points increase in the President’s job approval rating from September (49%) to October (55%) 2013; and marks the 2nd highest rating scored since January 2013. In addition, the poll revealed that 40% of Nigerians rated the performance of the current administration as average. However, there was a 2-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians (39%) that had experienced some improvements in their power supply in the month of October (down from September’s 41%). These were the key findings from the Governance Snap Pollconducted in the week of October 28th 2013.
The results presented are the tenth in the monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding three crucial elements – the approval rating of the president, the performance of the current administration, and the situation of power supply in the country.
Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first question sought to gauge the perceptions of Nigerians on the job performance of the President Goodluck Jonathan. Respondents to the poll were asked: Do you approve of President Jonathan’s performance in the past 1 month? An analysis of the responses to this question revealed that majority (55%: 47%+8%) of Nigerians approve of the President’s performance in the month of October, where 47% approve and 8% strongly approve his performance. Comparatively, 21% (17%+4%) of Nigerians disapprove of the President’s job performance, with 17% disapproving and 4% strongly disapproving his performance. In addition 24% remained neutral to rating his performance as they neither approve nor disapprove.
This current score of 55% depicts a 6-points increase in the job approval rating of the President, and a 3-points decline in the disapproval of the President’s performance from September to October (approval: 49%;disapproval: 24%) to October (approval: 55%; disapproval: 21%). A key observation is the percentage of Nigerians who remain neutral (24%) to the President’s performance. This figure moved from 27% (September) to 24% (October) showing a shift of 3% of this group towards the positive approval rating. This is a key indicator that shows that the group neutrals can sway the approval ratings forward or backward.
An appraisal of the President’s performance according to geo-political zones revealed that the highest approval rating of the President’s performance came from Nigerians in the South-East zone (78%: 60%+18%),followed by the North-Central zone (70%: 53%+17%). Comparatively, the North-West (36%:31%+5%) up from 21% and the South West with 34% (25%+9%) down from 42% has the highest proportion of respondents that disapprove of the President’s performance in the month of October. In comparing the proportion of respondents who are neutral according to geo-political zones, the South West zone with 32% up from 27% has the highest number of neutrals followed by the North East zone (28%) down from 31%.
A broader view of the President’s rating in ten months revealed an average approval rating of 49%.Furthermore, when the figures obtained in ten months are compared with the average (49%), it can be seen that the President performed above average in five months (Jan 50%, Feb 54%, July 53%, Aug 57% and Oct 55%) with August (57%) being his best rating and October (55%) his 2nd best rating; while his approval rating was below average in four months (Mar 46%, Apr 42%, May 44%, and Jun 44%) with April (42%) being his lowest. An evaluation of President’s rating in ten months indicated an average disapproval rating of 27%.Moreover, when the figures obtained in ten months are compared with the average (27%), it can be seen that the President performed above average in four months (Jan 30%, Mar 33%, Apr 33%, and Sept 27%) with March and April (33%) respectivelybeing his highest in disapproval rating; while his rating was below the average in six months (Feb 21%, May 25%, June 26%, Jul 25%, Aug 24% and Oct 21%) with February and October (21%) respectivelybeing his lowest in disapproval ratings. Further assessment of the President’s rating in ten months shows an average neutral rating of 23%. A comparison of the average (23%) with the figures obtained in ten months showed that the President’s job approval received neutral ratings above the average in six months (Feb 25%, May 31%, Jun 30%, Aug 24%, Sept 27% and Oct 24%) with May (31%) being his highest neutral rating and June (30%) his 2nd highest rating; while his neutral rating was below the average in four months (Jan 20%, Mar 21%, Apr 21%, and Jul 22%) with January (20%) being his lowest for neutrals.
Similarly, the second question sought to gauge the performance of the current administration. Respondents were asked: How would you rate the performance of this current administration in the past 1 month? The result revealed that majority (40%) of the respondents perceived the performance of the current administration as average. In addition, while 33% (31%+2%) were of the opinion that they performed well, 27%(23%+4%) suggested they performed poorly. This figure depicts a significant 10-points increase in the proportion of respondents who gave a positive rating to the administration’s performance from September (23%) to October (33%)
Analysing the performance of the current administration from the standpoint of the geo-political zones reveal that the South-South zone (52%) had the highest proportion of respondents that rated the performance of the current administration as average. Also majority of the respondents who gave a positive rating were from theNorth-Central zone (48%: 46%+2%) and the North-East zone (45%).
Again, an assessment of the performance of the current administration in ten months shows an average positive approval rating of 24%. A comparison of the average (24%) with the figures obtained in ten months showed that the current administration received positive ratings above average in three months (Jul 28%, Aug 35% and Oct 33%) and performed below their 10 months average in six months (Jan 22%, Mar 18%, Apr 16%, May 21%, Jun 23% and Sept 23%).
Finally, the third question to gauge the situation of power supply in the country within the past month, asked respondents: How would you describe power in your area in the past 1 month? The findings revealed majority of respondents (36%) were of the opinion that the power situation in Nigeria over the past one month “has improved a little”, this is followed by 30% who claimed “it remains bad” and 21% who confirmed that “there is no difference at all”. In addition, while 10% stated that “it’s very bad and has gone worse”, 3% affirmed that “it has improved very much”. In essence about 39% of respondents stated that they experienced slight improvements (down by 2-points from 41% in September 2013).
Analysis based on the geo-political zones revealed that the South-East (50%: 44%+6%), North-Central (49%: 45%+4%) and South-South (48%: 41%+7%) zones had the highest proportion of Nigerians who experienced slight improvement in the situation of power in the past one month. In addition, the North-East (56%: 48%+8%) and the North-West (51%: 38%+13%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who had negative experiences.
Furthermore, a look at the power situation in Nigeria over the last ten months revealed that an average of 37% of Nigerians experienced slight improvements in power supply. As such, positive ratings above average were experienced in the months of Jan (47%), Feb (44%), Sept (41%) and Oct (39%); while ratings below average were experienced in Mar (31%), Apr (31%), May (35%), Jun (32%), Aug (36%).
In conclusion, findings from this current poll have revealed a bounce back in the job approval rating of the President, with 55% of Nigerians positively affirming his performance in the last one month. This figure depicts a6-points increase in the approval rating of the President from September (49%) to October (56%). Furthermore a comparison of the average rating over the last ten months (49%) indicatedthat the President performed above average in five months (Jan 50%, Feb 54%, July 53%, Aug 57% and Oct 55%). Finally the poll revealed that majority of the respondents (40%) rate the performance of the current administration as average; while power supply worsened by 2-points from September (41%) to October (39%). In conclusion, while current findings do not necessarily show a clear link between the President’s positive approval rating and worsening power supply to households; we can only suggest that some other factors may be responsible for influencing the rating, including the successful October handover of share certificates to GENCOs and DISCOs, in anticipation of future improvements in power supply.
The opinion poll was conducted on October 28th to 30th 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com
This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.
NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.