Abuja, Nigeria. January 7th, 2014 – Monthly governance poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the month of December 2013 has revealed that 4 in 10 Nigerians (40%) approve of the President’s performance over the past month. This latest result represents a 10-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians that approve of the President’s performance from November (50%) and, the lowest approval rating for the President in 2013. The findings further revealed that 25% of Nigerians rate the performance of the current administration (the Executive Cabinet; Ministers and State Governors) as good; representing a 5-Point decline from the November(30%) rating. In addition, the poll result revealed a slight improvement in the situation of power supply as the proportion of Nigerians that experienced some improvement increased by 8-points from November (26%) toDecember (34%) 2013. These were the key findings from the Governance Snap Poll conducted in week of December 16th 2013.
The results presented are the twelfth in the monthly series of governance polls and concluding poll for 2013 conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding three crucial elements – the approval rating of the president, the performance of the current administration, and thesituation of power supply in the country.
Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first was to gauge the perception of Nigerians about the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month;respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month? The results revealed that 40% of Nigerians approve of the Presidents performance over the past month. Comparatively, 29%of the adult population respondents disapprove of the President’s performance; while 31% were neutral in rating the President’s performance as they neither approve nor disapprove of his performance. These figures represent a significant 10-point decline in the President’s approval rating from November (50%), and a 7-point increase in the proportion that disapprove of the President’s performance from November (22%).
Further analyses based on geo-political zones indicate that the South-East zone (58%) had the highest proportion of respondents that approve of the President’s performance. On the contrary, the North-West(40%), North-East (38%) and South-West (35%) zones had the highest proportion of respondents that disapprove of the President’s performance.The highest proportion of respondents that were neutral towards the president’s performance were from the South-South and South-West zones (35% each).
Evaluating the President’s rating over the year 2013 reveals that the President obtained the highest approval ratings for his performance in August (57%), followed by October (55%) and February (54%). On the other hand, the President received the lowest approval ratings in the months of December (40%) andApril (42%)2013.
Furthermore, analyses using quarterly averages reveal that the 3rdquarter of 2013 with an average of 53% was the President’s best quarter in terms of approval ratings; while the 2nd quarter with an average of 43% was the worst quarter in terms of the President’s approval rating. The year round average approval rating in 2013 was49%.
Secondly, with the aim of ascertaining the performance of the current administration respondents were asked:How would you rate the performance of this current administration in the past 1 month? Findings from this question showed that (43%) of Nigeriansare of the opinion that the current administration has performed averagely. While 25% (21%+4%) said they performed well, 32% (26%+6%) were of the opinion that they performed poorly.
An assessment based on the geo-political zones indicates that the North-Central and South-West zones had the highest proportion of respondents that rated the performance of the current administration as average (47%each). In addition, the largest proportion of respondents (45%) that rated the current administration poorly were from the North-East zone, while the South-East zone (40%) accounts for the highest number of respondents that indicated the current administration performed well.
Trend analysis of the performance of the current administration in 2013, shows a 5-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians that approve of the performance of the current administration from November (30%)to December (25%). Comparable to the President’s approval rating, the current administration also received its highest approval rating in August (35%); while its lowest rating was in April (16%).
Analyses using quarterly averages reveal that the best quarter for the current administration was the 3rd and 4thquarters of 2013 with an average rating of 29% each and the worst quarter for the current administration was the 2nd quarter with an average approval rating of 20%. Comparing this to the quarterly analysis for the President’s ratings, both ratings mirror each other, 2nd quarter was the worst quarter for both as the 3rd was the best for both. This mirrors the perceptions that both ratings are closely linked to each other, if ratings are high for the President, it reflects on his Cabinet and vice versa. The average quarterly rating of the current administration for 2013 was 25%.
Finally, the third question sought to gauge the power situation in Nigeria within the past month, respondents were asked: How would you describe power in your area in the past 1 month? The results revealed that34% (30%+4%) of Nigerians noticed slight improvements in the situation of power supply over the past month. This indicates an 8-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians that experienced an improvement in their power condition from November (26%). Furthermore, 29% of the respondents said that “it remains bad”, 21%indicated that “there’s no difference at all” while 16% of the respondents stated that the power situation “is very bad and has gone worse”.
From the geo-political zones perspective, the South-East zone (46%) has the highest proportion of respondents that noticed an improvement in their power supply; while the North-Central zone (29%) accounted for the highest number of respondents that affirmed “there’s no difference at all” in their power supply in December 2013. Furthermore, the North-West zone had the highest proportion of respondents (36%) that said power supply over the past month “remains bad” and the highest number of respondents that also said “it’s very bad has gone worse” were from the North-East zone (23%).
Trend analysis of the Power supply in Nigeria over 2013 reveals an 8-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians that noticed an improvement in December. Furthermore, the highest power rating in Nigeria was recorded in January 2013 (47%) the while the lowest power rating was observed in November (26%).
Quarterly analysis of 2013 shows that power supply was best over the 1st quarter with an average of 41%, and worst over the 2nd and 4th quarters with an average of 33% each. The worst quarter in terms of power supply ratings mirrors the lowest rating for the President and current administration. Indeed previous Governance Poll releases had suggested a loose relationship between power supply and the perception of Nigerians about the performance of the President and his administration.
In conclusion, the results from the current poll have indicated that 4 in 10 Nigerians (40%) approve of the President’s performance over the past month, representing a significant 10-point decline in the President’s approval rating from November (50%) and the lowest rating for the President in 2013. Also, the poll result revealed a slight improvement in the situation of power supply (34%) in December 2013, with an 8-pointsincrease in the rating from November (26%). In conclusion, despite the 8-point improvement in the rating of power supply, the approval rating of the president still experienced a significant 10-Point decline.
The opinion poll was conducted in December 16th to 18th 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No.1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com
This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published.
NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgement as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.