Sanwolu still leads the Polls; but Gbadebo gains momentum.
Abuja, Nigeria. March 14th, 2023 – Ahead of the March 18th, 2023, governorship election in Lagos State, a new public opinion poll conducted by NOIPolls has again favored Babajide Olusola Sanwolu, candidate of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) to win the governorship race over Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, candidate of the Labour Party (LP) and Adediran Azeez Olajide of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Considering the outcome on the presidential election polls having conducted the second Lagos State gubernatorial pre-election polls before the presidential election, it was pertinent to determine if the outcome of the presidential elections had any effect on people’s choice come 18th of March 2023. This recent poll shows that Sanwolu leads with 36 percent of respondents opting to vote for him if the elections were conducted today. However, his lead over Gbadebo from the last polls has reduced by 5 percent with 13 percent of respondents now saying they would vote for Gbadebo if the elections were conducted today.
Sanwolu’s lead of 23 percent is substantial however the momentum is with Gbadebo who had a 5 percent increase in the proportion of voters who disclosed that they are likely to vote for him within a period of 3 weeks. Given this trend, the postponement of the election from 11th to 18th March 2023 may also give him just enough time to further appeal to voters for their support. Adediran of PDP is lagging.
It is important to also note that a significant proportion of respondents still refused to disclose the candidate they are likely to vote for (27%) or claimed they were still undecided (16%). This group can swing the outcome of the election in any direction.
This poll was conducted between 3rd and 7th March 2023 and it sought to assess the level of preparedness of Lagos state residents towards the forthcoming gubernatorial election slated for March 18th, 2023. 500 randomly selected respondents, all resident in Lagos state, were interviewed via telephone. When asked which candidate respondents are likely to vote for, the result puts Sanwolu in the lead with 36%, over Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour with 13%. The People Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Adediran Azeez Olajide, trails at 5%. However, a significant proportion of voters, 27%, refused to disclose the candidate they are likely to vote for while 16% remain undecided as to who they will cast their vote for on election day.
Interestingly, the poll also showed that 99 percent eligible voters in the state are registered to vote in the coming election, and 95 percent of this proportion claimed that they have their Permanent Voters’ Card (PVC); with almost 8 in 10 (79 percent) certain they will cast their vote on 18th March 2023.
In conclusion, as party campaigns build up to the election day, findings from this poll has clearly pitched Sanwolu as favorite to win the March 18th governorship election in Lagos state with a substantial 23 percent lead over Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour. However, given the election result in Lagos state during the presidential election, the postponement of the governorship election, and the proportion of undecided/refused, these factors remain critical to determining who emerges victorious at the poll on 18th March 2023.
About NOIPolls & the Poll Methodology
NOIPolls is Nigeria’s premier public opinion polling institution, which conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com.
The poll was conducted between 3rd and 7th March 2023. It involved telephone interviews of a random state-wide sample in Lagos State. 500 randomly selected phone-owning residents of the state aged 18 years and above, representing the three senatorial districts of the state, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 4.65%.
Dr. Chike Nwangwu